Mild Week Ahead, Chance of a Few Showers.
By the way, in the morning discussion I mentioned how the winter has gone so far and completely forgot about this being Ground Hog Day. It should have been obvious but any ground hog that looked out today here in Oklahoma would certainly have seen his shadow given the lack of cloud cover. According to legend, that would suggest another 6 weeks of winter around here. But as mentioned this morning, we have not had much winter so far anyway as temperatures were well above normal for Dec and Jan and Feb is getting off to a very mild start as well. Guess I should point out that Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania did not see his shadow which is supposed to suggest Spring is right around the corner for that part of the country, in case you were wondering.
Now, on to more practical matters. We are currently on the fringe of a NW flow pattern aloft which is dragging periodic wind shifts/frontal boundaries across the state, but the real brunt of the colder air will be well removed to the NE of us. In fact, as the week wears on the flow aloft will become more zonal, or W to E, which is typically a very mild pattern for us. As you look at the forecast, this pattern is reflected by the very mild temperatures that are expected with daytime highs well above normal all week long and into the coming weekend, despite the occasional wind shifts. To keep things in perspective, the normal daytime highs at this time of year is right around the 50 degree mark.
The support aloft and the surface boundaries are relatively weak and there will not be time for much in the way of moisture to return either. As a result, only a slight chance of showers is expected with the boundary that will arrive on Monday and another slight chance along about Thursday and into Friday.
However, this pattern will be changing as we head on into the weekend with a more amplified flow aloft developing bringing a stronger system aloft this way. That should open up the moisture source from the Gulf of Mexico by Saturday which will also result in better chances of showers/storms. For now, will be conservative on the rain chances, but as the QPF map on the right shows, the potential will be there for up to another ½" of rain and as better data comes in over the next few days perhaps the chances and the amounts can be revised upward. Just don't want to get your hopes up too high; after all we are still in a drought situation.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.