Monday Morning Update

The weather pattern has been active for the past week, and it will remain so for the next week with a chance of rain and possibly some snow for part of the state Tuesday and another fast moving wave that could produce some snow Friday.  We're looking for fine weather today with sunshine, a few clouds, and highs in the lower to mid 50s. 

The weekend did produce some spotty showers Saturday and a line of showers and thunderstorms pre-dawn Sunday.  Most of the pre-dawn Sunday activity was elevated and void of thunder across the northern third of the state, while some thunderstorms were noted across the southeastern OK vicinity.  Rainfall amounts ranged from .15 near Tulsa to over a half inch near Durant.  Our attention quickly turns to the next wave arriving tomorrow.  

If you've been reading the blog for the past week, you'll know we've been seeing signals for some rain or snow Tuesday into early Wednesday.  Over the weekend we have seen various computer model scenarios ranging from rain to snow to no snow and all rain.  This variability in the data makes the Tuesday system a hard one to call.  Here's our best shot at this point.  We're going to see increasing clouds later today after highs in the lower to mid-50s.  A mid-level upper level wave will move eastward to near the state Tuesday with a surface low pressure situated to our south.  Rain will begin Tuesday morning across western OK and quickly change to all snow early tomorrow morning.  The rain will advance near into our area by midmorning into early afternoon with temps in the upper 30s or lower 40s.  As the afternoon progresses, the upper level trough will near the area with cold air aloft.  Some of the rain will have a chance to change over to snow by late Tuesday, mainly along and northwest of the I-44 corridor.  This is not expected to be a major precip event for Northeastern OK, but residents should remain aware of the possibility of rain changing to snow late Tuesday night. Current data would support about a half inch to maybe an inch or so in the areas northwest of Tulsa. The data has been suggesting 3 to 6 inches of snow across the northwestern half of the state, with lessor amounts further eastward.  Some data yesterday was suggesting near 4 inches of snow near and just west of Tulsa, but the very latest runs are suggesting much less. 

As the system leaves the state Wednesday morning, clouds will clear and temps will move back into the 40s and possibly the lower 50s across far southern OK.  But another cold front will rapidly approach the area by Thursday morning bringing another decent shot of cold air back to the state.  This should knock temps back down well below the seasonal average for both daytime highs and morning lows.  This means Thursday and Friday morning lows will be in the upper 20s with highs in the lower 40s to round out the week.   

The GFS is suggesting the possibility of a weak wave approaching the area Friday that could produce some light snow, mainly across the southern third of the state.  We'll discuss this system tomorrow.  

The high in Tulsa yesterday was 62 at 4:01pm.

The normal daily average high is 52 and the low is 30.

Daily records include a high of 77 from 1951 and a low of -3 from 1981.

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Thanks for reading the Monday Morning Weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV