The next 12 to 14 hours will remain unsettled across the state with an upper level system moving nearby and a surface warm front approaching the far southern OK and north Texas vicinity this afternoon.  Moisture has moved back over the area late last night and we're seeing scattered showers and thunderstorms across part of northern OK this morning.  A few of the storms could produce some dime to nickel hail, but the chance of this occurring is about 5% with any mature thunderstorm.  The severe weather threat will ramp up later tonight into the pre-dawn Saturday hours across far southeastern OK and north TX with the main threat of large hail.  Areas south of I-40 would need to monitor the storms later tonight, but the higher likely hood for severe would be from Southwestern OK through the Arbuckle's to Atoka southward.   

A few showers or storms may linger across far southeastern OK tomorrow morning, but we're anticipating a very nice Saturday with decreasing clouds and highs in the mid-70s.  North winds may persist for the first half of the day, but east to southeast winds around 10 mph will be common Saturday night into Sunday morning.  This will keep our Sunday morning lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s and daytime highs approaching the 80. Monday and Tuesday the highs may move into the lower 80s.  The weather pattern will become very active by the middle of the week and it may get very interesting.  

The GFS and EURO continue to offer big differences in the pattern, but both do suggest a strong font approaching the area during the Wednesday and Thursday time periods.  The GFS is somewhat faster and would bring the front across the area Wednesday with a robust chance of storms and a modest cool down.  The EURO is a day later, and would bring a cool down for Thursday into Friday.  The EURO yesterday morning had been flirting with developing a closed low across the central plains and brought this feature directly over the state late next week. The very latest run does not feature the closed system for our area.   Stay tuned.  It could get wacky again next week!


The high in Tulsa yesterday was 71 recorded at 2:43PM.

The normal daily average high is 75 and the low is 53.

The records include a high of 91 from 1987 and a low of 35 from 1910.


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Have a super great Day!


Alan Crone