Thursday Morning Update
The active weather pattern will remain for the next 24 to 36 hours with rain and storm chances, including this morning as the line of thunderstorm activity that rolled over the area overnight exits eastern OK by 7am. Afternoon highs today will move into the mid-70s along with southeast winds around 10 to 25 mph. Later this afternoon and evening, additional storms may develop and a few could be strong to severe. The main threat would be some marginally severe hail for locations along and south of I-40. The weekend at first glance still appears decent, but we continue to think a second cold front will arrive Saturday evening and could produce a few showers across southern Kansas and Northern OK.
The main upper level pattern has not changed compared to yesterday. The upper level system is located across the four corners area this morning and continues to slowly move eastward while weakening. A surface area of low pressure is to our west along with a surface dry line extending southward across western OK and parts of the western areas of North Texas. A complex of thunderstorms that developed in eastern Colorado last night is now moving southeast this morning and is weakening. This complex moved across northern OK overnight producing some heavy rainfall and 50 mph wind gusts in a few locations.
Later this afternoon the surface features will move closer to central OK while a cold front currently to our northwest will slide southeast. Showers and storms will attempt to re-develop later this afternoon and tonight across portions of central OK and southern OK. The current severe weather parameters would support most of the severe storm activity tonight to be located southwest or south of the immediate Tulsa area, but locations near the I-40 could see some severe storm formation.
Pre-dawn Friday, the cold front will make a push southeastward and consequently take most of the showers and storms southward to the Red River and part of North Texas. North winds around 10 to 20 mph with mostly to partly cloudy conditions will prevail Friday afternoon with highs either in the upper 60s or lower 70s. By Friday evening, I would expect the precip to be too far south to impact our immediate area of concern.
Saturday should be a mostly cloudy but mild day with morning lows in the 50s and highs in the lower 70s. A secondary surge of cool air should arrive sometime Saturday night bringing temps down into the 40s for Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon highs are expected in the upper 60s or lower 70s along with partly cloudy conditions and northeast winds. We do have a little issue or two with this front. The NAM has recently suggested this boundary could bring a few showers into the northern part of the state Saturday night. The GFS has been suggesting this probability for the last few runs, but we're still somewhat leery to "re-insert" some pops for this time period. Earlier this week I had a small chance in the 7 day planner for Saturday, but then decided the air mass would be too dry to support precip down to the surface. I'm beginning to re-think this possibility. GFS also indicates a slight chance of a few storms along the OK-Kansas state line by Sunday night late. I will not include this pop at this time, but may add it tomorrow for the late Sunday night time period. Bottom line: check back for updates.
The pattern next week may feature a mid-level ridge near the area Monday and Tuesday while the surface air flow from the southwest could also be present. This means our temps may move into the lower 80s Monday and possibly the mid 80s Tuesday! Another system may approach the area by late next week.
The high in Tulsa yesterday was 83 at 4:23pm.
The normal daily average high is 78 and the low is 57.
Our daily records include a high of 93 from 1918 and a low of 38 from 1923 and 1906.
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I'll be discussing our forecast this morning with Dan Potter and The KRMG Morning News.
You'll also hear my state-wide and regional weather forecasts on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network stations across the state.
Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.
Have a super great day!