Friday Morning Update

Good morning.  We're in the running again for a few showers or storms today with mostly to partly cloudy conditions with highs in the upper 70s.  The coverage should not be as widespread as yesterday and a number of folks will not experience any rainfall today.  The weekend will continue to feature a chance for a few showers or storms along with gusty south winds and highs in the lower to mid-80s.  The severe weather threat will be low.  

Before we move into the forecast, let's briefly look at yesterday.  I had a slight chance for showers and storms for the Tulsa area yesterday with much higher probabilities west and southwest of the region.  I called for a high anywhere from 76 to 79.  Most of the short term high resolution models indicated the showers and storms would approach the Tulsa area around noon and then fizzle out around 1pm to 2pm allowing for some partial clearing and temps moving into the 70s.  Wrong!  The showers and storms arrived around noon but stayed for the entire afternoon and early evening.  Temps were directly controlled by the rain-cooled boundary layer and never got out of the upper 60s.  Yes, I had a chance of showers or storms in the forecast, but I did not expect the rain to last through the afternoon and early evening.  My apologies for a blown forecast.  The weather forecasting business is a humbling affair and can be frustrating on occasion including yesterday.  

Now on to the details about the next few days.  Most of the EURO-GFS runs support a mid-level ridge across the southern plains this weekend into early next week.  Both data sets continue to support a small short wave developing and sliding across the northern portion of the ridge Saturday into Sunday allowing for scattered showers and storms near the region.  This "dirty ridge" is not the type of ridge we experience in summer but is one that will be somewhat weak for the weekend.  We're seeing difference precipitation forecasts with almost each run regarding our exact thunderstorm chances, coverage, and timing for the weekend.   I have decided to keep only a marginal chance for showers and storms today and Saturday (20% to 30%) and a slight chance ( 20%) for Sunday.  The upper air dynamics will be rather weak but a few storms could produce some small hail on occasion this weekend.  My advice is to continue with your plans but remain aware of the slight thunderstorm chances in the forecast. 

Temps will be in the upper 60s for morning lows this weekend followed by afternoon highs in the lower to mid-80s.   

Next week the ridge is expected to slide eastward as it weakens even more while a southwest upper air flow develops across the central and southern plains.  Ensemble data supports another strong looking upper air trough to approach the area by either Wednesday or Thursday.  This will increase our southerly surface winds as the surface pressure falls across southeastern Colorado, Western Kansas and Western Oklahoma early next week.  Low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will again stream northward entrenching the southern plains with a high moisture content.  This main upper level trough will draw near our area by the middle of next week with the overall pattern supporting a chance of strong to near severe storms by the middle to end portion of the period.   The exact forecast will undergo many changes between now and the end of next week, but based on pattern recognition, our storm chances should be increasing sometime by Thursday or Friday of next week.  

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I'll be discussing the weather this morning with Dan Potter and The KRMG Morning News.  You'll also hear my state-wide forecast on numerous Oklahoma Radio News Network affiliate stations throughout the morning hours.   

Thanks for reading the Friday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog. 

Have a super great day.  

Alan Crone