Wednesday Morning Update

Highs will move into the mid-90s today with gusty south winds across northern OK.  A few isolated storms are possible this morning across extreme northern OK and southern Kansas but this chance will remain near or less than 10%.  The HRRR runs of late continue to suggest this possibility and we've seen these isolated storms for the past three days during the morning hours.   

The big news continues to be centered on a major pattern change by the weekend resulting in temperatures falling below the seasonal average Sunday into next week.  This upper air pattern may also bring several a few opportunities for showers and storms during portions of next week.  But before this happens, the temps will move closer to 100 by Thursday. 

The temperatures yesterday remained in the lower 90s but today parameters will suggest some mid-90s due to southwest surface winds and the mid-level ridge of high pressure intensifying to our west.  The hottest day of the current stretch of warm weather will occur Thursday with highs near 100, but low level moisture will also remain high and temperature heat index values could exceed 105 for some locations.  Our friends from the National Weather Service may issue a temperature heat index advisory for some locations, including the Tulsa metro. 

The mid-level ridge will re-center across the four corners area of the U.S. allowing the upper air flow to be from the north and northwest Friday into Saturday.  A weak boundary will approach our area Friday morning with a chance of storms across southern Kansas and Northern OK.  The temps Friday may remain in the mid to upper 90s but north winds will invade the area bringing some drier air (lower dew points) to the northern OK region Friday afternoon.  This dry air can still heat efficiently, but the heat index may not be as high as Thursday.  I'll keep the storm chances around 10 to 20% for Friday morning.  

The next boundary will slide across the area sometime Saturday with a chance of storms late Saturday night or Sunday morning.  This boundary will bring the "cool down" with Sunday afternoon highs in the lower 90s and Monday's highs in the mid to upper 80s.  This broad upper air trough will be located across the Midwest and will keep a large portion of the central plains, the upper Midwest, and part of the northeast with unseasonably cool "not as hot" air for most of next week.  Additionally the pattern could also bring a few systems near the northern OK area including one around the 3rd or 4th of July with rain and storm chances. The GFS is more northward with a mid-level low during this period but is more "wet" for our immediate area for the 3^rd and 4^th.  The EURO has the low over the state but is surprisingly dry for the period. Regardless, the support continues to survive with each model run giving us a higher confidence in the major pattern change.  The exact forecast parameters will be worked out as we draw closer to the time domain. This pattern would change again by 2nd week in July bringing the ridge back across the southern plains and allowing the heat to return.   

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 91 recorded at 4:08pm.

The normal daily average high is 90 and the low is 70.

Our daily records include a high of 105 from 1918 and a low of 53 from both 1974 and 1958. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.  https://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6

Twitter@alancrone

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliate stations across the state through the morning hours.  

You'll also hear me with Dan Potter and The KRMG Morning News in Tulsa. 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning weather discussion and blog.  

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV