The Mid-Winter Thaw

Between a couple ice storms and a several bouts with snow already this winter (three coming in the first eight days of 2014 alone), it was beginning to seem like this season was payback for the several mild winters previous to now. However, just after we dove into the deep freeze a week ago, temperatures have started to rebound and the upward trend continues.

In stark contrast to last Sunday, this particular Sunday will be warm and windy with temperatures 40° warmer! The upper-level pattern has shifted just enough to allow for a benign, northwesterly flow pattern in the jet stream. This particular pattern will send at least 3 cold fronts through Oklahoma between now and late week, but none of them will have Gulf moisture to bring us precipitation. All of these fronts will send the bulk of the cold air well to our northeast so our cool-downs won't be all that substantial. That leaves us, here in the coldest time of the year, with a thaw that will last a good while until we see another pattern shift. The first map shows the current jet stream pattern, shunting the cold air and moisture to our east. The second map shows the longer term projection of temperatures up through January 25th. Based upon our longer-range guidance, it seems highly unlikely we'll see another major cold spell or winter storm until the end of the month. Those could be my famous last words, but I'm sticking to that for now!

Enjoy the mild, dry week ahead. It will certainly resemble a week from one of the last two winters, but we can appreciate it much more after our recent spell with sub-zero wind chills. If your vehicle is as dirty as mine us, you can be rather confident that no rain will wash it off any time soon. I guess car washes will continue to cash in!

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