Monday Morning Update

The colder air moved into the state late Saturday night into Sunday morning and now we're setting the stage for more cold air later tonight into Tuesday.  This air mass will stay near the state for most of the week keeping our temperatures well below the seasonal average.  There will be a slight chance of a few elevated thunderstorms later tonight into Tuesday morning across the southern third of the state, but most if not all of this activity will remain too far south to impact Northeastern OK.  Our friends and neighbors in the southern third of the state will keep a 30% chance of showers or storms after midnight into the first few hours of Tuesday.  There is a small signal for a few flurries across southern Kansas by late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for a few hours, but this probability remains extremely low.  

This morning we find some moisture in the upper part of the atmosphere moving across portions of the state.  This will result in some high cloud development for the next few hours but we'll expect a mostly to partly sunny day.  The RAP runs indicate some low level clouds forming this morning across part of south central OK and moving northward by midday. Our highs will slide into the lower or mid.  Tonight some elevated showers or storms will be possible along and south of the I-40 corridor for a few hours before the next front slides southward taking the moisture out of the state.  The high chance will reside along the Red River Valley into north TX.  

Tomorrow a surface ridge of high pressure will build down from the central U.S. bringing highs back to near 40 to 44 for Tuesday afternoon along with north winds at 10 mph after a morning lows near freezing.   Wednesday may be the coldest day for the week with morning lows in the upper teens and highs nearing 40.   

A quick return of southerly flow will kick our numbers back up into the 50s Thursday before another system nears the state Thursday night into Friday.  This system will also bring colder air back to the northern third of the state including a slight chance of some wintry mix to the region.  The probability will remain low for the wintry mix, but we'll need to mention a chance of precipitation for the Friday system.  At this point, the pop will remain near 40%.  

Morning lows for the end of the week into the weekend will drop into the 20s.  The temperatures for daytime highs will drop back down to near 40 Friday afternoon and will remain in the lower or mid 40s for the weekend.  

We see signs once again for another stronger looking system by the beginning of next week that may also have more cold air for precipitation chances.  As stated here during the past two weeks, the ensemble long range data has continued to suggest that cold air will be more likely between now and the start of March compared to normal temperatures.  This pattern may also continue for at least the first full week of March.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 54 recorded at 2:54pm.

The normal daily average high is 56 and low is 34.

Our daily records include a high of 85 from 1918 and a low of 8 from 2003, 1965, and 1910.  

You'll find me on Face book and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning hours. 

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning Weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone

KOTV