Monday Morning Update

Good morning and welcome back to the work week!  The weather this weekend featured something for everyone including a few showers and storms Saturday to spectacular weather Sunday.  This approaching week will remain active with rain chances Wednesday and limited storm chances Thursday into Friday.  The fire danger may also increase Thursday along and west of the Tulsa metro. 

The upper air flow will bring another wave near the state this afternoon and evening.  This wave will dive down through the central plains and push a surface boundary across the state this evening.  We'll see partly sunny conditions today with south winds before the winds shift out of the north by afternoon.  Highs will top out in the lower 60s with a slight chance for a few showers across extreme NE OK and SE Kansas.   

Tuesday will start with a ridge of high pressure near the area with morning lows in the upper 20s and afternoon highs only in the lower 50s with sunny conditions.  This ridge will slide eastward by Wednesday morning allowing a southerly surface wind flow across the state in the 15 to 25 mph range with higher gusts to the west.   

Low level moisture will begin streaming northward Wednesday afternoon and evening.  A number of models support the development of some rain with possibly a few rumbles of thunder as this moisture moves northward.  Wednesday's highs will reach the upper 50s or lower 60s with increasing clouds by afternoon and evening.  The rain chances will remain near 50% Wednesday afternoon and evening into Thursday morning.  Rain is likely to the south of Tulsa for areas of south-central and southeastern OK. 

Thursday a strong upper level trough will remain to our west.  A lead wave is forecast to round of the base of the trough and eject across the southern or central plains.  A surface low will develop near or west of the area and scattered storms will become possible Thursday night into Friday morning across the eastern third of the state.  Convective potential energy will be increasing during this period and instability will support some strong to severe storms.  The data is unclear regarding the Friday evening time period with some models holding energy back to the west longer compared to other data that clears the state of precip by Friday morning.  Regardless, at this point, it does appear the approaching weekend should be sunny and mild with morning lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s followed by Saturday highs in the mid-60s and Sunday's highs in the lower 70s.   

Another issue maybe the fire danger Thursday afternoon.  A dry line will be pushing eastward during the day and evening with dry and windy conditions west of this feature.  The fire danger will be critically high across the western and central portion of the state.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 49 recorded at 5:01pm.

The normal daily average high is 65 and the low is 42.

Our daily records include a high of 91 from 1929 and a low of 19 from 1966. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma news network affiliates across the state through the morning hours. 

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV