Tuesday Morning Update
Today should represent the best weather day of the week with sunshine, light northeast winds, and highs in the mid to upper 70s. Unfortunately, strong to severe thunderstorm chances will be in the extended forecast including the weekend. Before this occurs, some strong storms may be possible Wednesday night into Thursday across part of northeastern OK.
The cold front moved across the state yesterday afternoon with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. This happened after the nice widespread rain event yesterday morning through midday. The front is now located south of the state. And our weather looks good for this afternoon. The next upper level wave will approach the area Wednesday night and thunderstorm chances will ramp up with this feature. This morning some patchy fog is occurring due to yesterday's rains and light winds. Some dry air will slide southward this morning and eventually thin out the patchy fog.
As the wave approaches, strong south winds will return Wednesday with highs in the lower 80s. Gulf Moisture will attempt a quick return into the state ahead of this system. A surface low is expected to develop across ether NW OK or SW Kansas with a dry line establishing southward across far western OK by Wednesday afternoon. The dry line separates warm-moist air to the east from dry air to the west. As strong winds aloft move over NW OK Wednesday afternoon and evening, the dry line will begin moving eastward and scattered storms are expected to form near and ahead of this feature. A few of these storms will be severe. As the evening hours approach, the main upper level wave will begin sliding quickly east or northeast but a strong low level jet is expected to keep storms going into the pre-dawn Thursday morning period across part of southeastern Kansas and northeastern OK. It's unclear whether or not the storms would still be severe during the pre-dawn hours ( 4am to 7am) across NE OK. The odds would support the storms weakening into pre-dawn Thursday, but the presence of the low level jet is the complicating factor. We'll need to mention the possibility of a few severe, even during the early morning period.
By Thursday afternoon, a surface cold front will move southeast into the southeastern portion of the state where surface instability and convective energy should support a few storms which could be severe. Most, if not all of the Thursday afternoon storms would be located across far southeastern OK or southeastern Arkansas. After the Thursday morning hours, we'll not carry any pops on the forecast for Thursday afternoon or evening.
Friday the cold front will stall south of the Red River and begin lifting northward as a warm front into Saturday and Sunday. This is the time period that could feature several episodes of strong to severe storms, but the overall depiction in the GFS and EURO leaves just enough inconsistency to prevent us from making any confident forecasts with any specificity at this hour.
The GFS had been hinting that the front would end up south of the Tulsa area Saturday with northeast winds and cooler air into Sunday. This would greatly limit the severe weather potential for northern OK and southern Kansas while keeping southern OK into north TX in a favorable location for significant severe weather. The EURO has been northward with the warm front and therefore brings the moisture and instability into most of the state. At this point, we are giving credence to the EURO solution but have only made some minor changes to the extended forecast based on yesterday's numbers. The bottom line for the weekend: several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible, and some could be severe.
Eventually, when the system clears the state either Monday or Tuesday of next week, I think the pattern will suggest cooler air residing for most of the following week. The outcome of the main mid level low could have been impacts on northern OK Monday and Tuesday. EURO is parking the low across southeastern Kansas and the GFS is more westward across southern Missouri. Both sets will bring cooler air to the state. The EURO would bring some precip Monday into Tuesday. Stay tuned.
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 73 recorded at 5:26pm.
The normal daily average high is 74 and low is 51.
Our daily records include a high of 91 from 2009, 1965, and 1955. The daily record low is 32 from 1931.
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Have a super great day!