Monday Morning Update

Breezy and mild conditions are expected today with highs in the lower 70s.  Some haze or dust will be likely this morning to midday.   

The powerful upper level system is now located across the central plains and is beginning to occlude.  The pacific cold front is finally moving southeast and will clear the state pre-dawn.  We're finally seeing the dry air invading the entire eastern OK vicinity after the dry line stalled last night for a few hours across east-central OK.  And not a moment too soon.  This system has been a major, powerful spring storm responsible for tornadoes resulting in major damage, injury, and fatalities.   

The system started early Sunday morning with strong to severe storms across central and eastern OK.  As the afternoon progressed, the dry line moved east as a strong upper level speed max approached the state.  Severe storms erupted across extreme Eastern OK, SE Kansas, Western Arkansas, and SW Missouri producing damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes.  One tornado stuck Quapaw, OK then moved across the state line into Baxter Springs, Kansas. .  Several long track, violent tornadoes were also reported in central Arkansas yesterday afternoon and evening.   

The next few days will feature a northwest flow aloft pattern that will eventually bring cooler air to the area along with a few spotty showers or weak instability thunderstorms.  Most of the data supports a few spotty showers moving into the state later this afternoon and early evening before dissipating around sunset.  This activity will be very spotty with most locations remaining dry.  No severe weather will occur. 

Some data also suggest a few morning showers would be possible across far southern Kansas and extreme northern OK.  The higher chances tomorrow will remain across far northern OK and Kansas.   

The pattern will also bring another surge of cooler air later tonight into Tuesday with morning lows in the 40s Tuesday morning with daytime highs in the lower 60s.  Wednesday should feature lower 40s for morning lows followed by Wednesday afternoon highs in the upper 50s near 60.   Thursday morning should start in the upper 30s before ending in the mid-60s. If the extended data is correct, and we find no major issues with the reasoning, we'll see the bulk of the extended forecast with basically northwest winds and slightly drier surface air.  This is highly unusual for late April into early May.  

In summary, the powerful system will still impact the area today and for a few days but with cooler air and low chances of weak instability showers or thundershowers.  Severe weather threats have left the state and will continue to move across the southern U.S.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 85 recorded at 3:20pm.

The normal daily average high is 75 and the low id 54.

Our daily records include a high of 88 from 1970, and 1910.  The daily record low is 37 from the year 1965. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma news network affiliates across the state this morning. 

I'll also be on numerous Clear Channel radio stations in the Tulsa metro including KMOD, The Buzz, The Beat, and The Twister. 

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning weather discussion and blog.  

Alan Crone

KOTV