Cool for Now, Much Warmer Weather on the Way.
Once again, what rain has fallen over the last 24 hours was confined to the more SE counties of the state as the rainfall map on the right, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, clearly shows. The clouds and lingering showers also had quite an impact on temperatures as the second map shows as daytime highs did not even make it out of the 50s for some locations. Despite more sunshine further west, the northerly winds also kept them on the cool side with daytime highs also running about 10 degrees below normal.
This cool weather will be with us for at least another couple of days as the unusually amplified flow pattern aloft will be rather slow to change. Notice the third map on the right which shows the flow pattern at about the 30,000' level and you can see that northerly winds at that level reach from Canada deep into TX. This system will slowly weaken and drift eastward allowing our winds aloft to eventually return to a more W and then SW direction by early next week. This will produce much warmer weather by then and will also usher in a more unsettled pattern with better chances of showers/storms later next week.
In the meantime, enjoy the cooler weather with morning lows in 40s for tonight, lower 40s for Thu night, and near 50 for Fri night. Daytime highs will only be near 70 Thu-Sat and mid 70s by Sunday. Normally, we would be near the 80 degree mark, but 80s are expected by Monday and pushing 90 by Tuesday.
This flow pattern will also have some occasional pieces of energy aloft rotating overhead so cannot rule a few showers and possibly even some thunder each of the next few days right on into the weekend. The chances of any one location getting wet is rather low at only 20%, but those few that do occur will provide some brief periods of heavy rainfall.
Winds will be shifting from a light W direction to a more N direction Thu AM as another weak boundary drops into the state. Friday will see a return to southerly winds but shifting back to N/NE again on Saturday as another weak boundary moves through. Again, not much in the way of active weather with these surface boundaries, but this is keeping temperatures down.
Southerly winds return Sunday and will become strong and gusty again early next week resulting in much warmer temperatures. At the same time, the flow aloft will become more amplified with a rather strong trough developing to our west giving us a more SW wind flow aloft. This is typically a more unsettled pattern for us and together with the southerly surface winds bringing abundant low level moisture our way, could set the stage for a stormy pattern later next week.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.