Wednesday Morning Update
High temperatures today will move into the lower to mid-90s with heat index values nearing 100. Storm chances remain in the forecast beginning Thursday morning and continuing for several days.
Our forecast revolves around thunderstorm chances for late tonight into Thursday morning and then again for Friday into the weekend. A surface boundary should be near the Kansas-Oklahoma state line vicinity later tonight into Friday setting the stage for thunderstorms near or north of the boundary. Temperatures today should be in the lower or even mid-90s with temperature heat index values nearing 100. South to southwest winds will be in the 15 to 25 range this afternoon. The NAM data continues to bring the boundary very close to northern OK tonight with MCS potential into pre-dawn Thursday across northern OK and southern Kansas. GFS data is slightly northward with this boundary, and consequently keeps the higher chances north of the state. We have a compromise solution meaning a decent shot of storms Thursday morning with chances increasing during the mid-morning to early afternoon period for southern Kansas and extreme northeastern OK. Our chance will be near 30 to 40%.
The boundary will be near northern OK and southern Kansas Friday with additional thunderstorm chances near and north of the front. Once again, we may see some late Thursday night into early Friday morning storms with another chance of late Friday evening into Saturday morning storms.
The upper air flow will remain active. Another medium wave trough will move out into the central and northern high plains by Friday and Saturday night into Sunday. This will act to push the surface boundary southward clearing most of the northern OK area sometime Sunday morning. As this front encounters our areas Saturday night into Sunday morning, showers and storms will be possible and even likely in some locations. Moderate to heavy rainfall along with some severe weather will be possible with this system.
Temperatures behind the departing front will be near or even below the seasonal average with Sunday afternoon highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s with north winds at 10 to 20 mph. Drier air will move into the northern half of the state Sunday afternoon and evening. But the front may return northward as a warm front early next week bringing the low level moisture back into the state. This will bring more storm chances into the area early next week.
The upper air flow next week should be conducive for frequent MCS or storm complexes to move across the state. Our pops will reflect these probabilities for late night and early morning storm chances for several days next week.
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 90 recorded at 4:52pm.
The normal daily average high is 84 and the low is 65.
Our daily records include a high of 102 from 1911. The daily record low is 49 from 1954 and 1919.
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