Increasing Chances of Showers/Storms.
After another warm and windy day today, conditions will become more favorable for showers/storms over the next few days. The chances that it will rain somewhere in E OK on Thursday and Friday are close to 100%, but it will not rain everywhere nor will it rain all day long. Right now, the areal coverage of showers/storms looks to be on the order of 40% both days so the chances of measurable rainfall for any one location will be the product of those two numbers, i.e. 100%x40%=40% which is what we have on our forecast graphics. Again, this will not be a total washout if you have some outdoor plans made, just be aware that there is a moderate chance of showers/storms on both days. Also, given the abundant moisture available, those that do form will be capable of dropping an inch or so of rain in a relatively short time.
After making it up around the 90 degree mark again today and with a heat index well into the 90s, the clouds and chances of showers/storms for Thu/Fri should hold daytime temperatures into the 80s. Also, today's gusty southerly winds will diminish somewhat but still from the south. And, with dew point temperatures around 70, then our overnight lows will remain much above normal with minimum temperatures in the low-mid 70s. The exception to that would be near any rain cooled air from nearby showers/storms.
Fewer showers/storms are expected on Saturday and have dropped the chances to 20% with little or no mention of rain for Sunday. That means the weekend will also see warmer temperatures as we should be near 90 Saturday and possibly into the low 90s on Sunday. We will keep southerly winds both days at 10-15 mph with some higher gusts but not as windy as the last few days have been.
Then, next week could get interesting. The pattern aloft will be changing and becoming more favorable for showers/storms starting on Monday and looks to be very unsettled for the rest of the week. For now, am taking a rather conservative approach with the rain chances on the order of 20-30% but if the extended guidance verifies, it could easily be much more widespread. Not only that, but we could end up with a good soaking by the time this pattern comes to an end. Notice the first map on the right which is the 7 day QPF. An inch or two of rain looks to be a good possibility by the end of that period but more than likely showers/storms will extend beyond that time frame.
For example, notice the second and third maps on the right which show the expected trends for the last week of the month. As you can see, we have a pretty good signal suggesting below normal temperatures and near to above normal precipitation. That would certainly be a good thing heading into the month of July.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.