Tuesday Morning Update

Good morning.

We're tracking an area of thunderstorm activity this morning located north and northwest of the Tulsa metro. These showers and storms will continue sliding east to southeast and may approach the region early this morning.  High res data suggest a weakening trend with additional development possible later this afternoon and evening as a weak boundary slides southward.  Afternoon highs are expected in the mid to upper 80s along with mostly cloudy conditions and winds changing from the south to the northeast around 10 to 15 mph later this afternoon.  Additional showers and storms will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning near or south of Tulsa before the focus moves along the Red River  

The pattern will support a relatively weak upper air flow for the next few days centered over the southern plains with the main polar jet positioned across the central and northern plains states with a trough positioned over the Midwest.  As the weak stationary boundary is located near or south of the area for the next 48 hours, additional showers or storms will be likely later tonight into the pre-dawn Wednesday hours near and north of the front.  This may occur along the I-40 corridor northward to near or southeast of I-44.  This places the Tulsa metro on the northern end of the possible activity later tonight into Wednesday morning.  Regardless, we will continue to keep a decent chance in the forecast during this forecast period. 

The boundary will be along the Red River Valley Wednesday night into Thursday before either moving northward by Friday morning, or becoming diffuse by Friday.   A surface ridge of high pressure should build across the northern third of the state Wednesday afternoon into Thursday bringing slightly drier air and pleasant weather to the region.   The result regarding our precip chances will be a slight chance of showers or storms Thursday evening with higher chances to the west of the Tulsa metro.  We are seeing some signs of some Thursday night and Friday morning storms near the I-35 corridor, but most of this would remain west of the metro at this point.  I'm struggling with decisions regarding any pops at all for the Thursday night and early Friday morning period.  If I do add any chances, it will be rather small. 

The 4th of July Holiday period will support highs in the upper 80s near 90 along with southeast winds in the 10 to 15 mph range.  The weekend will start in the lower 70s with highs in the lower 90s.  A weak upper level wave may near the eastern third of the state this weekend with a slight chance of a few showers or storms, but the chances appear low.  We have opted to keep the weekend basically precip free for this forecast cycle, but would of course reserve the right to make those changes in subsequent updates!  I keep a slight pop ( 10%) for the Sunday period across far northern OK. 

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 94 recorded at 4:36pm.

The normal daily average high is 91 and the low is 71.

Our daily records include a high of 106 from 1917.  The daily record low is 57 from 1995, 1924, and 1918. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the weather on numerous Radio Oklahoma News network affiliates across the state through the morning hours. 

You'll also hear our forecast on Tulsa metro radio stations, including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The buzz.   These stations are part of Clear Channel Communications. 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great and safe day!

Alan Crone

KOTV