Hot Weekend, Cooler Next Week
Decided to drop temperatures a degree or two for the weekend due to the extensive rain footprint from the recent rainfall. Notice the 3 day total rainfall map on the right, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. That had an impact on temperatures today as the second map on the right shows. Notice that despite full sunshine all day today, most locations barely made it to 90 here in NEO, but those locations in SW OK which missed out on the recent rains were in the upper 90s.
Having said that, a more SW surface wind for Saturday and Sunday will bring that hotter, somewhat drier air our way so upper 90s are expected both days and a few locations may make it to triple digits. But, not the widespread triple digits that would otherwise occur without those recent rains. Also, the SW wind at 10-20 mph should keep dew point temperatures in the 60s which means the relative humidity will be dropping to 40% or less during the heat of the day. That will keep the heat index from being much more than the actual air temperature. Hot, certainly, but for this time of year and considering what we have had in recent summers, not too bad.
After that, all the long range guidance continues to point toward very mild conditions for the following week as a rather strong front, by July standards anyway, will be moving across the state during the day Monday. The timing of this boundary is still questionable, but an initial wind shift should arrive during the day Monday followed by a more pronounced wind shift marking the arrival of the cooler air that night or early Tuesday morning. A brisk NE wind will then prevail for the next several days keeping temperatures as much as 10-15 degrees below normal for this time of year.
There will also be chances of showers and storms with some possibly occurring ahead of the boundary Sunday night across our more northern counties. Better chances of rain will then follow for the next several days with the boundary to the south of us and a NW flow pattern aloft providing some upper level energy. The cool front will stall out and its final destination will have a lot do with the path and intensity of the showers/storms next week. Current indications suggest most of NE OK will be on the northern fringe of the storm track but that is certainly subject to change and next week could turn out to be very unsettled.
The clouds and eventual location of the showers/storms will also have a lot to do with just how cool we will be. As mentioned, temperatures will generally be 10-15 degrees below normal for much of next week, but some days could turn to be even cooler than that.
All in all, a very interesting pattern for next week, so stay tuned and check back for updates.