Monday Morning Update

Monday, July 21st 2014, 4:36 am

By: Alan Crone

This past week has been absolutely wonderful. But the pattern has changed and we're moving into more of a typical summer-time pattern including temps moving a few degrees above normal along with increasing temperature heat index values as low level moisture continues to surge northward across the state. Our next chance for a few showers or storms may occur Wednesday as a weak front nears the state. A stronger front is expected to move across the state this weekend.

This morning we're starting in the lower 70s with south winds and humid condition. Our highs this afternoon should make it to the lower and mid-90s, but the temperature heat index values should also climb into the upper 90s near 100. South winds will blow in the 10 to 152 mph range. I don't see any major lifting mechanism across the state, so any chance for showers or storms will remain near or less than 10%.

A mid-level ridge of high pressure is expected to be centered near or west of the area today and tomorrow but should also move slightly more westward Wednesday. This will create a small northwesterly or northerly flow across part of the state. A surface cold front will move southward out of the Missouri Valley and the central U.S This boundary is expected to enter the northern third of the state sometime Wednesday. A few showers or storms will be possible across far southeastern Kansas, northwestern Arkansas and northeastern OK as the boundary passes the area. Thursday the front will be located near or south of the I-40 area and a few showers or storms may occur in southern OK Thursday morning. Our forecast will keep a slight chance of showers and storms in the Wednesday time period with only a modest cool down into the lower 90s.

The data suggest another surge of warmer air returning Friday and Saturday before a stronger looking system will near the state Sunday or Monday. The data suggest a strong upper level system will once again be located across the upper Midwest and northeastern U.S. This should help to push a cold front southward across a large portion of the nation resulting in another nice summer cool down next week. I don't think the cool down next week will be quite as robust as last week, but we will notice the difference.

The upper air pattern will be conducive for bringing showers and storms into the state for the first few days of next week.

Yesterday’s high was 86 recorded at 4:36pm. The daily average-normal high is 94 and the low is 73. Daily records include a high of 109 from 1939 and a low of 55 from 1970.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

I'll be discussing the weather on numerous Radio Oklahoma News network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.

You'll also hear our forecast on Tulsa metro radio stations, including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The buzz. These stations are part of Clear Channel Communications.

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great and safe day!

Alan Crone

KOTV