Tracking A Chance For A Few Storms

Wednesday, July 23rd 2014, 4:39 am

By: Alan Crone

Good morning. We're expecting another hot day across southern Kansas and northern OK despite a slight chance for showers and storms as a cold front nears the area. This boundary will not bring a major temp change, but we'll notice slightly cooler and drier air later tonight into Thursday morning. Highs today will be near 97 in Tulsa with temp heat index values nearing 105. Excessive heat warnings remain for Tulsa county. Heat advisories remain for part of southern Kansas and northeastern OK. Southeastern OK is not included in any heat advisories, but index values are still expected in the 98 to 104 range.

We are tracking the chance for a few storms this morning moving down the front side of the mid-level ridge. This ridge is located near and west of Tulsa. This chance will increase during the midday and afternoon period from NW Arkansas into East-Central and eventually far southeastern OK. We will also keep a chance for a few showers or storms near Tulsa and the vicinity, but the chance for any location today will remain around 20 to 30%. A few of these storms may be strong to severe with damaging downbursts of winds possible.

The boundary may be intact Thursday morning for few hours across the I-40 corridor before becoming diffuse later tomorrow morning. A few showers or storms may persist across southern OK Thursday pre-dawn but the chances will remain very low. Southeast winds will quickly return tomorrow afternoon with highs in the lower or even mid-90s.

The extended models continue to support another run up of warm air. Saturday will be nearing 100 with Sunday in the mid or upper 90s. A few showers or storms may be possible Sunday, but the chance is low.

The pattern is expected to change again early next week. The mid-level ridge will be located west of the region with another significant trough across the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada. This will bring cooler air back into the northeastern U.S and the Midwest. This cooler air mass should reach the state of OK but we do not anticipate the same magnitude of cool air compared to last week.

But...the upper air flow will remain from the northwest for several days next week. If we could get a disturbance to move out of the Rockies and across the state, we may have another day next week with the possibility of some rain cooled air near the area. The signals are inconclusive regarding the best day of the week for this possibility, but seem to be converging on either Wednesday or Thursday as a higher probability day.

Yesterday’s high was 96 recorded at 3:43pm. The daily average-normal high is 94 and the low is 73. Daily records include a high of 107 from 1936 and 1934. The record low is 58 from 1970.

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I'll be discussing the weather on numerous Radio Oklahoma News network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.

You'll also hear our forecast on Tulsa metro radio stations, including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The buzz. These stations are part of Clear Channel Communications.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great and safe day!

Alan Crone

KOTV