Good Morning.   After a minor break from the heat yesterday, we’re expecting temperatures to climb today and Saturday.  Afternoon highs will be near the mid or upper 90s  today and probably from 100 to 102 Saturday.  Temperature heat index values will be nearing 105 to 107 both days from Tulsa to the west.  Heat advisories will be required for a large portion of the state today, including the Tulsa metro and locations west.   Some areas of eastern OK will not be included in the advisory today. The pattern is expected to change Sunday into Monday bringing another front into the area followed by cooler air next week.

Saturday the temps will be starting in the mid-70s and followed by highs around 100 in Tulsa.  Hotter conditions will be likely across the central and western part of the state.  Gusty southwest winds in the 10 to 20 mph range will be likely.  Despite the southwest surface wind, RH values may still allow for heat index numbers around 105 to 107. 

Sunday the mid-level ridge will begin sliding westward and a major trough will carve out across the upper Midwest and the Great Lakes.  This is the same pattern we experienced two weeks ago.  This upper flow will bring a front southward and should clear the state either Sunday or Monday.  At this hour, I'm leaning toward a late Sunday night or early Monday morning frontal passage.  Regardless, we'll have a chance for a few showers and storms Sunday night into Monday morning as the pattern change begins.  The last few runs of the GFS data suggest a healthy chance for showers and storms along and behind the boundary late Sunday night and early Monday morning, but I’m still inclined to keep the pops low at this point.   Strong to severe wind gusts would be possible with some storms.

Next week the morning lows will drop into the 60s and afternoon highs may stay in the mid-80s Monday and Tuesday.   A series of disturbances will move from the northwest to the southeast and could bring another rain maker into the state Wednesday.  The data has been very consistent with this suggestion and our chance for rain and storms Wednesday will continue to be high Wednesday.  The temps should stay well below the seasonal average Wednesday.  I have the high at 80 but we could easily stay in the upper 60s and lower 70s depending upon the exact trajectory of the system.  This morning both the GFS and EURO seem to keep the higher pops slightly west or southwest of Tulsa.  Our chances will remain near 40% for the Wednesday period.   Stay Tuned!

Yesterday’s high was 91 recorded at 4:15pm.  The daily average-normal high is 94 and the low is 73.  Daily records include a high of 108 from 1934.  The record low is 54 from 1911.

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Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great and safe day!

Alan Crone