Monday Morning Update

Monday, August 4th 2014, 4:32 am

By: Alan Crone

Expect another mostly sunny to partly cloudy afternoon along with highs in the 90 to 93 degree range. Temperature heat index values will be nearing the 94 to 97 range today. A few isolated showers or storms may occur northeast of Tulsa early this morning, and then across the far eastern third of the area this afternoon. Slightly higher chances will arrive in the extended forecast.

The pattern will slowly shift over the next few days allowing another weak front to approach the area by the end of the week. A few showers or storms will be possible as this occurs. Temperatures in the short term will continue to slowly rise with readings near normal. Temperature heat index values will approach 100 soon.

This morning I find a few showers and storms across eastern Kansas moving southeast to south along the upper air flow. Some of the short range Hi-res products bring a few of these showers across the state line into far northeastern OK around 7am this morning before falling apart. I’ll add a mention or two for this scenario this morning. We did experience a few isolated showers and storms this past weekend across far northeastern and eastern Ok. These were very small and very little precipitation occurred.

The main pattern for our region of the country reveals a mid-level ridge of high pressure centered near and west of the state this morning. This ridge will slowly expand today, but then begin migrating westward by Tuesday and Wednesday. This will create another northwest to northerly flow across the region allowing another weak front to near the area Thursday. This boundary will provide a few showers or storms Thursday and Friday. The coverage will be on the low side, but our pops will be in the 20 to 30% range for the period of interest.

As the weekend nears, the upper air flow will remain favorable for additional showers or storms in the region. Some of the models indicate a mid-level disturbance arriving next Monday. This would bring more rain and storms to the region early next week along with another minor cool down. The surface front may stall along the state line late this week before moving southward sometime around Sunday.

The forecast today will call for afternoon highs in the lower 90s along with south winds near 10 mph. A few isolated showers or storms may be possible but very few locations will experience the rain. Temperature heat index values today will be increasing into the mid-90 range.    The temperatures for the Tuesday through Thursday period will remain near the normal climate averages.

The normal high is 94 and the low is 73. Records include a high of 111 from 1923 and a low of 52 from 1920.

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I'll be discussing the weather on numerous Radio Oklahoma News network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.

You'll also hear our forecast on Tulsa metro radio stations, including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The buzz.   These stations are part of Clear Channel Communications.

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great and safe day!

Alan Crone

KOTV