Sunday Storms and a Refreshing Week Ahead
The unusual August rolls on with Day 4 of storms and humidity now on hand. A nearly stationary front and some ripples of energy riding from east to west across the Plains are to thank for our daily deluges across portions of the area. Rain totals have ranged from the meager (Okemah: 0.04”) to flash flood-inducing amounts with Pawnee getting well over two inches of rain in about an hour's time earlier today. Totals around Tulsa range from 1.66” in Bixby to a less impressive 0.79” at Tulsa International Airport.
Sunday may bring multiple opportunities for rain, starting in the morning. A decaying storm complex may hold together to bring in a fourth morning of wet conditions. After a midday lull, afternoon and evening storms are possible. A few of those storms could have locally damaging winds and hail. While the severe threat is low, you'll want to keep an eye to the sky later in the day. Afternoon heating (quite a bit of it) may induce those storms on boundaries in the region. It may go from sunny and hot with a heat index of 100° to torrents of rain in little time. The attached map shows the broad-brushed storm chances for the afternoon and evening. Just about anyone may see a storm during that time.
That stubborn frontal boundary will finally get a push south of the area by Monday, effectively ending our chance of rain for a while. We can't rule out a shower or storm, mainly south and east of Tulsa Monday, but it will be our transition day to a wonderful stretch of August weather. A cooler, dry air mass settles in Monday night, allowing temperatures to fall well into the 60s to start off our Tuesday. Despite sunshine, Tuesday and Wednesday will offer a refreshing north breeze, helping to keep our highs 5° to 10° below normal. 60s to 80s will be the temperature range midweek before southerly winds return and we're back to the more standard 90° highs. Late in the week will bring that warm up and potentially lead to another round of storms next weekend. It's still too early to tell if that storm system will make it far enough south to impact us – always a big question this time of year as the jet stream sits so far north.
On a side note, Hawaii rode out an unusual and strong Tropical Storm this past week with another hurricane bypassing the island chain to the north. Fortunately, the latter named Julio, is likely to just bring high surf to the islands, sparing them of the worst of the rains and wind. Still, this has been a fascinating series of Tropical systems to watch. When Iselle made landfall and ran right up against 13,000+ foot volcanoes, the effects on destroying the structure of that storm were amazing. Even more incredible, temperatures were held in the mid-30s at the peak. When a 92 mph gust was recorded, that would have brought the wind chill to 15°. That is the FIRST time I've ever heard of a hurricane bringing such frigid weather!