Monday Morning Update

Monday, August 11th 2014, 5:29 am

By: Alan Crone

Good morning. Our forecast discussion will remain short and sweet today. We're looking at nice weather for the next few days!

The weekend was interesting with some late night and early morning storm complexes moving across the area. No severe weather occurred and we picked up some nice August rainfall.

This morning we're tracking a few showers and storms mainly across the far southern third of the state as a weak front slides southward into the North Texas vicinity. The upper air flow is still favorable for bringing a few showers or storms into the area pre-dawn across far northeastern OK this morning but the odds are very low. But I don’t see any mechanisms heading our direction at this moment. It looks like we’re in good shape for the next few days.

The main upper air pattern will keep a surface ridge near and southwest of the area. A mid-level ridge of high pressure will be near the state today before moving out by the middle of the week when a small area of low pressure will develop to our west. We'll see a chance for a few showers or storms moving back into the region around Friday morning, but this weekend would feature slightly higher pops for the remainder of the 7 day forecast. The GFS is more southward with a mid-level disturbance on the top side of the ridge compared to the EURO. Basically the GFS brings storms into the area and the EURO keeps us high and dry. We’ll keep only very slight placeholder type pops until the confidence increases for this time period.

The rest of the week appears rather uneventful with drier air moving southward into the state this afternoon and tonight. This will bring low dew points across the Eastern third of the state resulting in morning lows in the lower 60s Tuesday and Wednesday morning for many locations northeast of Tulsa. We may also have a few valley stations reporting the upper 50s for an hour or so Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

The Tulsa temps will start in the lower 60s and then finish into the mid and upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday with sunny conditions and north winds. You will notice the drier air and the not as hot temps. Not too bad for August!

The upper air pattern will basically be from the northwest to southeast by Friday into the weekend. This will allow for a few disturbances to move across the state providing some scattered storm chances for the period. Again, this pattern would support some late night and early morning storms, but we'll keep our pops on the low side until higher confidence arrives with additional support from model data.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

You'll also hear me on numerous Tulsa metro radio stations including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The Sports Buzz.

I'll be discussing the forecast on Radio Oklahoma News affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV