Hot Again Friday, Much Cooler for the Weekend.
It has been another hot, humid day across the state as the max/min temperature map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, clearly shows. Keep in mind, our normal daytime high at this time of year for the immediate Tulsa area is in the upper 80s and we have been well above that for the last several days. That will be the case again Friday as temperatures will not cool off much tonight and should reach well into the 90s again tomorrow before a cold front arrives late in the day or during the overnight hours, depending on your location.
The air behind this cool front will result in a significant cool down for the coming weekend and there will also be a decent shot at some badly needed rainfall. In fact, the second map shows the QPF estimate through Sunday morning and suggests the potential for up to an inch of rain with greater amounts more likely further west. The reason for that is the potential impact of hurricane Norbert on the Pacific side of Mexico. Norbert will be weakening as it moves northward, but the wind flow aloft may bring some of that moisture at least into our more western counties over the course of the coming weekend.
The timing of the frontal passage and the showers/storms that may accompany it suggests it will be late in the day Friday and perhaps not until after dark for many locations. For that reason, temperatures tonight will once again be very warm with morning lows generally in the 70s under fair skies and southerly breezes. Temperatures will quickly warm during the day Friday and should reach the low-mid 90s before the cool front arrives that evening or early night. Most of the showers or storms that form will be primarily along and behind the cool front and extending well behind the surface boundary. That means showers and perhaps some thunder may linger well into the day Saturday. For that reason, have brought the rain chances up to 60% for Friday night into the day Saturday and the timing is such that these may impact some of the area high school football games Friday night as well as the college games on Saturday.
Any lingering showers are expected to have ended by Sunday morning leaving a dry Sunday and Monday before chances of rain return to the forecast Monday night into Tuesday and also for Wednesday. Another, even stronger cool front will be arriving later on Wednesday followed by an even cooler system moving into the state for later next week. More about that in a moment.
First, the 90s of today and tomorrow will be followed by highs only in the 70s for Saturday. In fact, some of the data suggests we may have trouble even making it to 70 depending on cloud cover and how long the showers linger. Sunday should be near 80 with at least some sunshine. Brisk northerly winds on Saturday will return to a more SE direction by Monday. Mon-Wed will warm up again with highs well into the 80s followed by another significant cool down starting Thursday.
In fact, it is looking more and more like that will signal a more significant change in the upper level pattern as the longer range guidance is continuing to show a stronger signal suggesting below normal temperatures in the 8-14 day time frame. Notice the last two maps which have the temperature and precipitation trends during that period. Certainly looks promising for some much more pleasant fall-like weather by then.
In the meantime stay cool, stay tuned, and check back for updates.