Unusually Quiet Beginning to Fall

Sunday, September 21st 2014, 6:55 pm

By: News On 6

Fall begins Monday at 9:29 pm, but fall-like air has returned a day early. A sweeping cold front has ushered in much cooler, drier air, which will stick around for some time to come. We've definitely been in that seasonal transition as we go between hot, muggy days and cooler, crisper ones like the week to come. I always say Oklahoma's finest weather is on display from late September into October, and that will definitely be the case this year.

                It's hard to believe, but we've just about reached the halfway point between the summer and winter solstices. The autumnal equinox on Monday marks the moment the sun's rays are perpendicular to the Equator. This means we've already lost half of the amount of daylight from our longest day to our shortest day in December. Since June 21^st, nearly 2 and half hours of daylight have gone away. Of course, this loss in daylight results in the loss of heating and the gradual cooling and transitioning of seasons. It just doesn't happen as gradually as our loss of daylight.

                You'll notice a not-so-gradual change in temperatures starting off your Monday morning as those readings bottom out near 50° in many places. The dry air, clear skies, and light winds in place this week will lead to refreshingly cool nights. The days to come won't offer much change, giving us quite a dry streak of weather. This is due to a blocking pattern in the jet stream (shown in the first image), which will feature a large, slow-moving trough with unsettled weather to our west and a large ridge of high pressure overhead. The only bug in the pattern is a weak upper-level disturbance, which will meander over the High Plains in the coming days. The only effect this will have for Green Country is an increase in clouds midweek and perhaps a few light showers just northwest of Tulsa. Besides that, little will happen to modify our mild day/cool night pattern with light winds.

                This pattern bodes well for a great kick-off to the Tulsa State Fair. We'll see a very gradual increase in temperatures by next weekend, but the lower humidity values will still make for comfortable weather to stroll down the midway on just about any given day into early next week. This jet stream pattern won't likely fetch any cold air of Arctic origins any time soon, so it's a fairly good bet warm weather persists through the rest of the fair time. This often isn't the case! Our 8-14 Day Outlook shows continued above-normal readings into early October. Those temperatures won't be far off from where they are now, but this is the time of year those average temperatures really start to drop off so what feels normal now will become more unusual with time. It's this LACK of transition in our weather that is unusual.

                For those keeping an eye on the Tropics, our peak season has turned into a dud in the Atlantic Basin. At least for the week ahead, little organization appears to occur with any wave.

                Have a great start to a beautiful fall week and be sure to follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and like my page on Facebook!