Too Warm and Too Dry, But That Will Change Later This Week.
Here it is, almost October and temperatures are running around 10 degrees or so above normal, at least with respect to our daytime highs. Notice the max/min temperature map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, which has daytime highs well into the 80s. At least the air has been dry enough that our nights are comfortably mild with morning lows in the 50s and low 60s. Although our winds are from the SE, they have been very light the last week or so and more importantly the winds along the northern Gulf of Mexico are still from the NE. That has kept the deeper, richer moisture well away from our state.
That will be the case again Tuesday with morning lows in the 50s to low 60s to start the day and afternoon highs back into the mid-upper 80s under mostly sunny skies. However, a little stronger southerly wind of 10-18 mph on Tuesday will start to bring a little more moisture up this way. By the time a cold front arrives late Thursday, there should be enough moisture in place for a decent chance of showers and storms. We can certainly use the moisture as it has been particularly dry for Aug and so far into Sept as the statewide precipitation percentage map shows, also courtesy of the OK Mesonet.
There could be some scattered showers/storms on Wednesday, particularly late in the day and during the overnight hours, but the best chance looks to be on Thursday. Look for Wednesday to have more cloud cover, stronger southerly winds, and still very warm with morning lows in the upper 60s and daytime highs well into the 80s again. The actual cold front should be pushing through this part of the state during the afternoon and early evening hours. We will put the chances of any one location receiving measurable rainfall during that time frame at 70% for now, but those chances may go even higher. Also, a few storms may become severe with primarily a wind/hail threat.
Rainfall totals may be as much as an inch for some of us, but most locations will likely receive less than that as the greater likelihood of the heavier rainfall will be further east. Notice the 7 day QPF map which has the axis of heavier rainfall along the OK/ARK state line and further north into KS & MO. By the way, after Thursday, we have a dry forecast so although this is a 7 day graphic, the only real application to our weather will be through Thursday.
Although we may not get enough rain to please everyone, at least temperatures will return to more seasonal levels following this cool front. Daytime highs in the 70s and overnight lows back into the lower 50s should be the general rule to start the coming weekend. By Sunday and Monday, things will start warming back up and the longer range guidance is not very optimistic about another cool-down nor another good chance of rain for several more days after that.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.