Occasional Showers Today

Friday, December 5th 2014, 4:54 am

By: Alan Crone

We're tracking an area of spotty showers for part of eastern OK today with temperatures this morning in the lower 50s. The bulk of the rain appears to be taking more of northern track into southern Kansas, but we should continue to be in the running for some spotty showers and rainfall across northern and eastern OK during the next few hours as the upper level wave moves eastward across the southern plains. There will remain minor instability across southeastern OK that could support a rumble of thunder or two later today east of highway 69-75. Locations south of I-40 will have a lower chance for showers and thunderstorms compared to the northern third of the state. This system should be exiting the region later this afternoon most locations dry by early evening if not sooner. The weekend continues to look mainly dry for the majority of the area despite another wave approaching from the west Sunday night and early Monday morning.

The overall pattern remains somewhat consistent for the next two to three days.   A series of waves will move west to east across the southern portion of the nation helping to generate some showers and storms. The data this morning support the bulk of precipitation moving northward into southern Kansas but our saturated atmosphere shouldn't take much lift to generate precipitation this morning and midday.   The NAM has indicated a minor dry slot that could run into the region for a few hours this morning, but we would anticipate some moisture in the form of occasional showers developing later this morning and migrating eastward for the day.    The bottom line: we'll continue to keep high chances for showers this morning for the next few hours before gradually tapering off the precipitation later this afternoon.    Amounts are expected to be light.

Temperatures this afternoon should move into the upper 50s north and lower to upper 60s south along with southeast winds at 10 to 15 mph before a surface cold front approaches from the northwest by 3pm to 4pm in Tulsa.   This will bring a wind shift and slightly cooler air back to the region this evening into Saturday.   We anticipate Saturday morning lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s with daytime highs tomorrow in upper 40s near 50 with partly to mostly cloudy conditions.

Another weak and fast moving wave will near the state Sunday evening into Monday morning with the higher chance for showers or thunderstorms located along the Red River Valley into north TX.   We have continued t keep a slight chance Sunday in case this system takes a turn north, but have decided to drop the pop from the Sunday period for this forecast cycle.

Next week continues to offer a chance for a few showers and storms near us Wednesday as another weak wave moves near the state.

The temperature trend for the remainder of next week and into the following week may support above normal readings.   While this may sound good in the short term, increasing south winds and temperatures may eventually allow for thunderstorm chances to near the region in the not to distant future during the following weeks.    Stay tuned.

Thanks for reading the Friday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Alan Crone

KOTV