Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Cloudy, Some Fog And Continued Cold
Friday, December 19th 2014, 3:44 AM CST
Good morning. Once again we're starting with cloudy and cold conditions across the region with morning lows in the 30s. A few areas will experience some patchy fog for a few hours this morning. I'm tracking another storm system that will bring rain to part of southern OK and north TX today, but this system may be too far south to have a major impact across northeastern OK. We'll keep a slight mention in the forecast for a few patches of drizzle or a brief shower, but the chance in the Tulsa metro will remain around 10% today. Locations along and south of the I-40 corridor will have a 30% chance of rain, with locations along the Red River Valley most likely to experience the rainfall today.
The southern stream system will exit to the east early tomorrow morning and we'll begin a rather benign time period for the weekend regarding sensible weather. The sun make a brief appearance tomorrow with partly sunny conditions with morning lows in the lower 30s and Saturday afternoon highs in the upper 40s or a few lower 50s, but I'm afraid the clouds may still be the dominate sky cover feature. Wind speeds will remain light and mainly from the southeast Saturday and slightly stronger Sunday.
Sunday temperatures will take a minor jog upward after morning lows start in the mid-30s. The afternoon highs should move into the lower 50s with a few mid-50s possible south of the Tulsa metro.
The upper air flow will bring a fast moving short wave across the central plains into the state Monday. This should drive a surface front southward across the region Monday afternoon bringing a slight chance for a few showers across southeastern OK with only a brief mention required for the northeastern quadrant of the state. Monday afternoon highs should reach the mid or upper 50s before dropping into the upper 40s for Tuesday afternoon highs along with north winds Tuesday and Wednesday.
Christmas Eve our surface winds will return out of the south as a strong upper level system begins diving across part of the country. A surface area of low pressure is expected to rapidly develop out of the Rockies and will eventually move southeast over part of Oklahoma and Texas. The exact timing of this scenario remains somewhat elusive. This may occur late Christmas Day, or possible Friday into Saturday after Christmas. Once this scenario begins to take place, a strong cold front will dive southward bringing much colder air back to the state. There will additionally be a threat of some precipitation behind the boundary. Actual operational model output would suggest the higher likelihood for precipitation would occur to the north of the low, across portions of Kansas. This morning's data is a major departure from yesterday morning's data regarding precipitation chances for the weekend with lower chances. Obviously we're many days out from next weekend and the weather forecast will take several times between now and then, but due to the important travel associated with the Christmas Holiday, I would encourage you to remain aware of the weather forecast centered upon the Christmas Holiday and following weekend period.
Have a super great weekend.
And thanks for reading the Friday Morning weather discussion and blog.
Ps. I'm using the remaining vacation days soon, and will be away from the weather discussion and blog for the rest of the week.
Have a wonderful Merry Christmas!