Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Tracking More Rain, Cold Air
Friday, January 2nd 2015, 3:38 AM CST
The first wave that brought some light freezing precipitation to the state has exited to the east, and now we'll be tracking the main upper level system that brings rain chances to the area this afternoon and tonight. Some patchy freezing drizzle has been occurring overnight across part of northeastern OK. A thin layer of glace may exist on untreated elevated surfaces. The temperature profile from the surface to the 5k ft. of the atmosphere is expected to remain above freezing for most of the day. This means the majority of the precipitation tonight and tomorrow will fall as rain and not any wintry mix or freezing rain across eastern OK. There will be a few spots on the OK-Kansas state line area that could experience some wintry precip Saturday as the system exits the region.
The temperatures this morning remain very close to freezing or slightly below freezing across part of northeastern OK. Some very light drizzle may be possible for the next hour or two before light rain begins to develop and move northeast. A short term winter weather advisory will remain for locations near the freezing line. The rainfall production will increase and the rainfall rates will increase by Friday afternoon and evening as the main upper level low draws closer to the west Texas region. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the mid or upper 30s. Overnight temperatures will remain slightly above freezing into Saturday morning, and any precipitation across the majority of northern or eastern OK is expected to remain the non-wintry variety.
As the upper level trough begins to lift out across northwestern OK into south-central Kansas, some snow will develop. I think this swath of snow will remain well west or northwest of northeastern OK. I suppose a few small areas of snow may occur around Ponca City along the OK-Kansas state line region across far northern Osage county, but this appears to be a stretch according to the latest data. As the low is moving NE into south-central Kansas, dry air will quickly invade eastern OK and erode precipitation quickly Saturday morning. This may occur between 5am and 7am Saturday with any remaining rain moving rapidly into western Arkansas. Temperatures Saturday afternoon may move into the upper 30s or even a few lower 40s, but cloud cover may remain with very little sunshine expected.
Sunday additional cold air will roll southward as another front blasts across the state. Strong northwest winds will bring the arctic air mass back across the state. Sunday morning may start in the lower 30s but would drop into the mid-20s for the afternoon with decreasing clouds.
Monday into Wednesday will be dominated by cold and dry conditions with another frontal passage Tuesday. I see signs in the EURO and GFS of another system nearing our area by next Saturday that may produce some precipitation.
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Have a super great day!