Storm Chances Soon
Monday, March 23rd 2015, 3:22 AM CDT
Welcome back to the work week. And welcome to spring. The weather pattern will become active this week across the southern plains, including the chance for a few strong to severe storms. We'll be following two surface fronts and at least three distinct upper level systems that will have an impact on our weather. Temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 70s with south winds and partly cloudy conditions.
The upper air flow is currently from the west to east. The northern stream will migrate slightly south, and a weak northwest flow will develop by the middle to the end of the week. A lead disturbance will eject across the central plains Tuesday followed by a stronger wave Wednesday. As the upper air flow becomes more amplified late in the week, a medium to long wave trough will develop across the central and southern plains Friday into Saturday.
The first upper air disturbance will quickly cause a surface area of low pressure to develop along the OK-Kansas state line area later this afternoon and tonight. Low level moisture will move across the area as south winds continue to blow across the southern plains. A few scattered showers or storms may be possible along the state line area pre-dawn Tuesday, but a slightly better chance will occur Tuesday afternoon and evening as a surface front moves southeast across eastern OK. A few storms may develop along and ahead of this front Tuesday evening, and if they do, a few could be severe. The better chances will reside across extreme eastern OK and western Arkansas.
As the next upper level wave approaches Wednesday morning, strong south winds will quickly return across the region with deeper moisture racing northward across eastern OK. Late Wednesday afternoon and evening, a cold front will begin moving southeast across the eastern third of the state with thunderstorms developing along the boundary. Some of these could be severe with some damaging wind gusts and hail. Pockets of heavy rainfall will also be possible with this system. The front will be exiting southeastern and east-central OK before dawn Thursday.
Thursday into Friday should feature cooler air as the surface front moves southeast away from the area and the upper level trough moves over the region. A few areas of light showers may be possible Friday. The latest and greatest data suggest even colder air compared to the previous few model runs. This would result in the possibility of some snow showers or flakes early Friday morning! Some freezing temperatures would be possible Saturday morning across part of Eastern OK. We're not writing this part of the forecast in stone, and changes are likely to occur, but the trend of some colder air will remain in the forecast for the end of the week.
Temperatures today are expected in the mid to upper 70s with partly cloudy conditions and south winds around 10 to 15 mph.
Tuesday a small chance of showers or storms will remain across northern OK and southeastern Kansas early in the morning, but the slightly better chance will remain Tuesday evening for a few locations across eastern OK. Tuesday morning starts in the upper 50s near 60 and ends near 80 for the daytime high.
Wednesday morning lows will remain in the upper 40s and lower 50s with daytime highs in the lower 70s. Wednesday night will feature the highest chance of storms, some could be severe.
Thursday low temperatures in the 40s will be followed by mostly cloudy conditions and highs in the upper 50s. Colder air is likely Friday into the first part of the weekend.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super-great day!