Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Warm, Humid Thru Holiday Weekend

Temperatures are in the upper 60s and lower 70s at this hour across the eastern third of the state along with mostly clear sky.   South winds around 8 to 15 mph will be likely again today through midday with higher wind speeds confined to the northwestern and western half of the state.   The temperatures will remain above the seasonal average for the next few days with most locations topping out in in the lower 90s.   We continue to think the Labor Day Weekend will be dry and warm for almost all locations across eastern OK, outside of an isolated storm or two across east-central or far southeastern OK.   Monday day, the actual day of Labor, there will be a few storms located across extreme northern OK and southern Kansas.  

We’re in a holding pattern waiting for the upper air flow to change.  Once this occurs, a series of systems will be brushing the state, beginning around the middle of next week, that will bring rain and storm chances back to northern OK along with some fall-like air by the end of the week.  

This morning we’re continuing to track a weak but broad mid-level trough located across part of southeast TX.  This feature could produce an isolated shower or storm this afternoon across far southeastern or eastern OK but the chances appear less than 10%.   Some data support a general weakness in the mid-level ridge that may also allow an isolated shower or two across eastern OK both Friday and Saturday.  Operational data indicates slightly higher moisture pooling across far southeastern OK and northeastern TX during this period.  Again, we think this chance appears around 10% for the eastern and southeastern OK region.   The main focus will continue to be early next week when a front enters the southern Kansas area and slowly migrates southward.   This boundary should remain north the state until Wednesday or even Wednesday night when higher storm chances will arrive along with cooler air for the middle to end of next week.   Some ensemble data suggest the highs will stay in the upper 80s Wednesdays and possibly into the lower 80s Thursday and Friday.   The period between Sept 11th and the 18th could feature a very nice taste of cool fall-like conditions. 

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV