Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Warm With Cold Front On The Way

This uneventful weather will continue in the short term with morning lows in the upper 40s and 50s followed by highs in the mid-80s today and nearing 90 Thursday.   A cold front will move across the area Thursday night and Friday morning bringing a slight chance for a few showers or storms and some fall weather back to the state for the weekend.   No major system is expected for the next 5-7 days, but a stronger system may arrive by the middle of next week. 

The upper air pattern remains from the northwest to the southeast.   We do not see any significant disturbance or system upstream that could move down the northwest flow highway in the short term.   A weak front will eventually cross the state early Friday morning, but the lack of significant and deep moisture will keep our rain chances to a minimum.  We’ll keep a 20% chance of showers and thunder for the northern part of the state and only for the pre-dawn Friday morning hours.

Temperatures behind the front do appear cooler in the data this morning compared to the previous few mornings.   But I’ll not make any major changes to the temperature forecast.   We’re keeping lows in the upper 40s near 50 and highs Friday in the lower 70s.   Gusty north winds are likely directly behind the front for the first half of Friday before the pressure gradient relaxes and wind speeds decrease.   The cool and dry air will allow for great Friday night football conditions across the state.   Games will start in the 60s and end in the 50s along with clear sky and no precipitation.   The weekend forecast also appears very nice with lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s followed by Saturday highs in the lower 70s and Sunday’s highs in the lower to mid-70s.

The pattern should transition early next week.   A southwest flow will develop with a system nearing the state by the middle of the week.   This should increase our rain and thunderstorm chances around Wednesday and Thursday of next week.   Until this happens, our fire danger will continue to be a concern.   Even if we see some spotty showers Friday morning, the amount of precip is expected to be very light.   The fire danger issues will not subside until we get a good soaker over the area, and this may hold off for a while.  

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone