Flirting with Freezing and Severe Weather

Parts of Green Country are experiencing the first freeze of the season as the coolest air since early March has invaded the area. Our Monday may begin on a frosty note even if Tulsa manages to escape a freeze. We may again flirt with the freezing mark later in the week. We’ve passed our average first freeze date so we’re living on bonus time if you want to continue the growing season. If you’re an allergy sufferer, the freeze couldn’t come any sooner!

                After Monday morning, a warming trend is on.  Southerly winds will kick up and draw in warmer air and more moisture through the middle of the week.  This comes ahead of our next storm system that will likely sweep across our state midweek. The potency of this storm system will be felt ahead of time as south winds gust upwards of 30 mph by Tuesday into early Wednesday. This super-charged low pressure system will have powerful dynamics. For one, southerly winds will be strong enough to maintain lower 60s overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, which happen to be our average HIGH for this time of year. Secondly, strong wind shear will compensate for a lack of instability Wednesday morning as the cold front slides into eastern Oklahoma. This may allow for low-top strong to severe storms to develop and race eastward midday. The primary threat would be high winds, but we couldn’t rule out hail or even a few tornadoes east into the Ozarks. The greatest risk of severe weather will likely occur east into Arkansas and Missouri as maximum daytime heating occurs in conjunction with the strong wind shear and increasing moisture levels.  This is shown in the Outlook for Severe Weather on the attached map. Behind the front, winds may gust to 40 mph, enhancing fire danger as the air dries out.  Needless to say, Veteran’s Day will come with some wild weather, even if Green Country just has a glancing blow with severe storms.

                The weather will settle down for the end of the week as cooler air once again settles into the area. This means we’ll have another night or two where much of the Oklahoma experiences another frost or freeze. It’s too early to say whether or not Tulsa will be prone to a freeze then.  As time goes on, it becomes more and more likely. Fortunately, the current weather pattern holding most of the Arctic air north of the Lower 48 is likely to hold through the third week of this month.

                As we move forward into the winter months, we’ve got an outlook for that too.  In case you missed it last week, here’s a link to our prediction!

                Be sure to follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and like my Facebook page for more weather updates on our tumultuous fall weather in the week to come!