TULSA, Oklahoma - The potential for severe thunderstorms including damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and a small threat for tornadoes will be in the forecast for late tonight through early Tuesday morning across eastern OK as another powerful upper level storm moves near the area.   Showers will be ongoing this morning near northeastern OK.   This activity will not be severe.   We should intermittent showers during the day before severe storms develop across western OK and arch eastward overnight into Tuesday morning.   Surface instability and convective energy may be somewhat low across eastern OK but extremely strong wind shear (direction and speed) will be present with this system.   Despite the early Tuesday morning arrival the threat for severe weather will remain.   The system will leave early Tuesday morning with windy and drier conditions from the west to east.  Quiet and calm weather will remain until this weekend when another storm system will be nearing the state. 

Once again a powerful upper level low is forecast to move across the southwestern U.S. and across part of Oklahoma later today and early tomorrow morning.   Upper level winds nearing 100 to 110 knots will scream across the region allowing storms to develop later tonight across western OK.   These storms will initially be discrete super cell storms capable of tornadoes and large hail across the western and southwestern part of the state.   About midnight a squall line will be developing and approaching the I-35 corridor while gaining forward momentum moving rapidly eastward.   Strong south and southeast surface winds will feed moisture into the system with the storms capable of producing very heavy rainfall and damaging winds as the line moves eastward.   The nature of the expected wind profile from the surface to the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere could support embedded super cell storms within the squall line capable of producing damaging wind and possibly a tornado.   You’ll want to remain aware off your weather surroundings late tonight through early Tuesday until the line passes your area.   Once the initial line passes your area, the severe weather threat will diminish.  The main window overnight for strong to severe storms will remain from 2am through 7am with the main metro chance roughly 3am to 5am.   The entire system should be out of the state between 7am-8am.

Strong west to northwest winds are likely to follow the system Tuesday midday to afternoon with clearing sky and highs in the 60s.   Due to the expected nature of the Tuesday morning storms, the fire danger Tuesday afternoon will remain very limited. 

Temperatures will remain cool for the remainder of the week with morning lows in the lower 40s and highs in the lower to mid-60s along with mostly sunny conditions. 

The pattern should bring another fast moving short to medium length trough near the state Saturday into Sunday with a chance for some showers followed by a noticeable cool down.   Temperatures Friday morning will start in the lower 40s and end in the lower 60s.   Saturday features increasing clouds with a chance of morning showers. Lows in the lower 40s will be topped by highs in the mid-50s along with cloudy sky.   A surface front will clear the region Saturday evening or Sunday morning bringing colder air with lows in the lower to mid-30s and highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a great day!

Alan Crone