Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Cold Front Arrives This Weekend

Temperatures remain in the 40s and 50s this morning with a few clouds and light winds across the area.   Highs this afternoon and for the next few day swill remain in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Temperatures yesterday moved into the lower 70s for daytime highs and this should remain the case for the rest of the week.   A few more clouds may occur today but mostly sunny conditions will prevail.   Stronger south winds will crank up Friday as the storm system moves closer to the southern plains.

A surface area of low pressure will develop to our northwest.   South wind will transport low level moisture into the state ahead of the cold front.   This will set the stage for some thunderstorm chances Saturday as the system moves across Oklahoma.   The better moisture and lift will coincide across the eastern third of the state and probably the extreme eastern sections into southeastern OK.   The expected wind direction and speed from the surface into the mid-level of the atmosphere will suggest the potential for strong to severe storms.   The only limiting factor will be surface instability.   But this high shear and low cape environment may still produce some severe weather.

The cold front will move across the area late Saturday night ending the threat of severe weather, but the main upper trough will not clear the region until sometime Sunday afternoon or evening.   This means our rain and shower chances will remain Sunday with cooler air.   But the exact shape and positioning of the trough is still in question and changes to the Sunday forecast should be expected.   We’ll start Sunday morning (post-midnight) in the upper 50s and may drop into the 40s for most of the day. 

We’ll see another minor warming trend early next week with upper 50s and lower 60s likely before another strong cold front enters the state midweek with more cold air.   The Tuesday frontal passage is expected to be dry.  But a storm system may be nearing the state from the southwest late next week with the cold air already across the region.