Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Rain Likely Saturday; Ending Later Sunday

Hard to believe this is December. Notice the max/min temperature map across the state today, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, and some locations in far SW OK made it to 80, while McAlester set a record of 73 for a high temperature.

For Tulsa, we expect to set a record warm low temperature to start the day Saturday as temperatures will hold in the 50s or low 60s by early morning along with overcast skies and a brisk south wind.

During the day Saturday, a gusty S to SE wind and overcast skies should keep us in the 60s pretty much all day long with a few low 70s possible. Along with the clouds will come chances of rain which will be gradually ramping up as the day wears on and a cold front approaches from the west. There will be periods of drizzle or a few light showers for the morning hours, light rain and showers becoming more widespread during the afternoon and rain likely with embedded heavier showers and possible storms for the evening and overnight hours.

A few storms could become severe with primarily a damaging wind threat, but there could also be some brief but heavy downpours creating localized drainage issues as well. The lack of instability will limit the severe threat, but very strong wind fields at the surface and aloft could still produce enough storm organization to pose a damaging wind threat.

Also, the extremely high moisture content, i.e. a nearly saturated vertical profile, for this time of year could lead to some localized but extremely heavy downpours and thus the flood threat. Those conditions will be primarily confined to the overnight hours of Saturday night for Green Country and, right now, it appears that any thunder will hold off till after the parades are over.

However, rain is a good bet along with gusty southerly winds and temperatures running in the 60s right on through parade time.

As you can see on the 3-day QPF map, the eastern half of the state could end up with a good soaking, but the heaviest amounts still look to be targeting far E OK and on into Arkansas. The rains will continue into the morning hours of Sunday, gradually ending from W to E later in the day or by early Sunday night. After that, the rest of next week looks to be much more stable, as you can see on our forecast page, with no additional rainfall expected through the rest of this forecast cycle.

Temperatures will be tricky on Sunday. After setting a record to start the day Saturday and close to record levels that afternoon, Sunday also looks to start off very warm with most locations holding in the 50s to near 60 for the morning hours. Somewhat cooler air will be gradually filtering in during the day as our surface winds gradually shift from a SW or W direction behind the squall line to a more W and eventually NW direction by evening. That should bring temperatures down into the lower 50s if not the upper 40s to end the day.

Above normal temperatures will still prevail for the first part of next week, but a stronger cold front arriving on Tuesday will finally get us back to the real world, with conditions more typical of this time of year. Looking further down the road, the 8-14-day outlook continues to suggest temperatures will average above normal during that time period leading up to Christmas Day and also above normal chances of precipitation.

More specifically, next week looks to see a return to warmer conditions, but still dry, followed by a potential storm system in the days prior to Christmas Day.

However, conditions should have settled down by Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, according to the latest and greatest data runs, which have been a little more consistent for the late few data cycles; will keep a close eye on that in the days ahead.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot