TULSA, Oklahoma - A fast moving upper level system will move out of Colorado and the Southwestern U.S. and into the central plains states today and tonight.   At the surface, an area of low pressure will quickly form in southeastern Colorado and move northeast into Kansas later today.   Our winds will increase speeds from the south at 15 to 25 mph today in response to this deepening area of low pressure.   A surface cold front will move across northwestern OK this afternoon and into the eastern third of the state late tonight and early Wednesday morning.  

While we’re not expecting any precipitation with this system across northeastern OK, some locations across extreme southeastern OK may experience a brief shower late tonight.  High temperatures today should top out at in the mid-60s across the northeastern part of the state.   Wednesday afternoon highs will drop into the upper 40s and lower 50s with mostly sunny conditions along with northwest winds at 15 to 25 mph for most of the day.   A broad trough will be located across the upper Midwest extending into the Missouri Valley Thursday and Friday.   This will act to re-enforce colder air across northern and northeastern OK Thursday and Friday with morning lows in the mid-20s and afternoon highs only in the mid-40s.  

North winds will prevail from Wednesday through Friday.   No precipitation is expected.    But the GEM-Canadian model is developing some precipitation across southern Kansas late Thursday night into Friday morning as some forcing moves across the state.   No other data support this solution as the model remains an “ outlier” among the group.  

The pattern will change again into the weekend as another southern stream system begins to influence the area Sunday into early next week with increasing moisture and gusty south winds.   Temperatures this weekend will also be increasing with daytime highs in the mid-50s Saturday and into the mid-60s Sunday.   Some showers may be possible across extreme eastern OK Sunday night with thunderstorm chances increasing sometime next week.  Our forecast will keep only a slight chance for showers or some thunder late Sunday night into Monday morning across eastern OK. 

Another strong looking storm system may be approaching the state around or just after Christmas Day.   This will bring increasing rain and thunderstorm chances back to the state.   These specific data have already changed significantly from the past few runs, but the confidence of a system nearing the area is increasing.  

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone