Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Tracking Precipitation Chances

<p>We&rsquo;re tracking two fast moving upper air waves in the northwest flow that will bring some precipitation chances across part of eastern OK and western Arkansas. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

Tuesday, January 19th 2016, 4:04 am



We’re tracking two fast moving upper air waves in the northwest flow that will bring some precipitation chances across part of eastern OK and western Arkansas.   The first arrives later this afternoon and exits late tonight into pre-dawn Wednesday.   The second arrives Thursday and should leave the region late Thursday night or pre-dawn Friday.    The approaching weekend will support a minor yet noticeable warming trend.

Temperatures are cold this morning but not nearly as chilly as yesterday at this hour.   This is due to the increasing south winds ahead of the next system that will move into the area later this afternoon and evening.   Temperatures will move from the lower 30s this morning into the lower or mid-40s later this afternoon with southeast winds at 10 to 25 mph.    Much warmer air is possible but may remain to our southwest across part of south-central and southwestern OK.   Temperatures across far northeastern OK may still remain quite chilly for the day.   Additionally, a small area of far northern OK and southeastern Kansas may still be near freezing when the first part of the system begins producing very light precipitation and could result in some freezing drizzle.   The southeast winds will keep the temperatures moving up into the upper 30s and 40s by afternoon as most of the light precipitation begins to impact eastern OK.   As the first wave exits the area later tonight, a small window will exist for some very light mix across extreme northeastern OK and Northwestern Arkansas because temperatures will drop behind the existing system.  

The 2nd wave appears slightly stronger.   The upper level system will dive more southward before lifting out across the state Thursday into early Friday morning.   A surface low should develop Thursday and begin moving eastward into far eastern OK by Thursday afternoon and evening.   Locations along the Red River will experience some light rain.   Locations across far northeastern OK may see some light showers changing or mixing with some snow before ending pre-dawn Friday.   This system may have a slightly better chance of producing some light snow as the back side of the upper level system moves eastward but most of the precip will be exiting the area before the deeper and colder air will arrive Thursday night.

Friday will be a cold day with lows in the upper 20s and highs in the upper 30s.

Saturday features lows in the 20s and highs near 50 with Sunday’s lows in the mid-30s and highs in the upper 50s.

Precipitation chances remain today, and then at times, late Wednesday night through Thursday night. 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV

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