Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Frosty Tonight, Warmer Days Ahead

Turned out to be a pretty nice day today as the abundant sunshine offset a brisk northerly wind. Notice the max/min temperature map, which shows most of us were warmer than normal, which, at this time of year is the upper 40s for a daytime high.

So far, the month of January has been cooler than normal with temperatures on average almost 2 degrees below normal. But, as you can see on our forecast page, the month will end on a warm note and will likely erase that temperature deficit.

Those warmer temperatures will start Wednesday afternoon after getting off to a colder than normal start that morning. Fair overnight skies and light winds will result in a frosty start to the day and temperatures generally in the low-mid 20s, which is a couple of degrees colder than normal. But, sunny skies all day long and a more SW surface wind will push afternoon temperatures well into the 50s and some locations close to 60.

Thursday will be warmer yet with a milder start to the day, lots of sunshine, and a weak wind shift producing a W or, at times, even a NW wind for us. But, the air behind this wind shift will only be drier, not cooler, so look for afternoon temperatures to reach the lower 60s.

Friday will see increasing southerly winds and with dry, warm air in place along with dormant vegetation, there will likely be an enhanced fire danger. Daytime highs will be well into the 60s along with lots of sunshine once again.

Saturday looks to be the warmest day of this forecast cycle with daytime highs possibly near 70, lots of sunshine, and with strong, gusty, southerly winds a high fire danger as well.

Another weak wind shift looks to be moving into parts of the state on Sunday. This system will be dry, so no rain is anticipated, but there will be more clouds and the wind shift should knock at least a few degrees off our daytime highs.

That boundary will become diffuse on Monday, so back to gusty southerly winds and very warm daytime temperatures. Clouds will also be on the increase in advance of a stronger storm system headed our way, which could also produce our first chance of rain in quite some time, with a few showers possible late in the day or that night.

After that, things start getting interesting.

The longer range guidance is showing some significant timing differences regarding when a strong cold front will come through the state. Often, systems such as this arrive earlier than anticipated, but the data is inconsistent enough to create doubt regarding even that scenario.

Right now, it appears the day will start off very mild but could/should be turning colder before the day is over. If the GFS is correct, the colder air will not arrive till Tuesday night; if the ECMWF is correct the cold air will arrive early Tuesday morning. Just be aware that Tuesday will likely be a transition day followed by much colder conditions for the rest of the week.

As you can see on the 7-day QPF, what chance of rain we do have for Mon/Tue will not amount to much, if we see anything at all.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot