Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Cooler Air Soon

We made it into the mid-60s yesterday from the metro -west and even some 70s across western OK.   The highs topped out into the mid-50s eastern OK.   The Tulsa metro officially went down at a 68F in the books!

 This morning we’re back to north winds today and slightly cooler air.   A weak front cleared the area early this morning.   Highs this afternoon will range from the upper 40s and lower 50s across eastern OK to the 30s in the Missouri Valley.      South winds will return Friday morning, but data this morning suggest the next front will quickly move across the area early Friday.   This will require an adjustment for daytime highs down a few degrees into the lower 50s.   And this may not be enough.   Even colder air “should” continue to ooze into the region Friday midday into the evening.    This will bring the lower and mid-40s back to the state Saturday for highs.   Sunday a strong upper level system will be nearing the state.   This will bring a chance for a few showers into eastern OK but the low level moisture is expected to remain very low.    Any precipitation Sunday or Sunday night will be very light.   There’s been some thought that some light freezing drizzle would be possible Sunday morning across extreme eastern OK, but at this point, we’re keeping this out of the forecast.    Southeast winds should bring the temps up into the 40s Sunday afternoon.    Only the GFS is keeping some light precip near the state Monday morning with EURO clearing the state.   We’ll keep the Monday pops out.   A warming trend is likely to occur for a few days next week with more locations hitting the 60s Monday and possibility into the 70s Tuesday.

The upper air flow remains from the northwest to southeast.   A major vortex remains from Hudson Bay southward into the Ohio River Valley.   This has been circulating cold air across the Midwest into the Missouri Valley eastward for the past few days.    We’ll see a small sample of this air-mass today, and then another taste of colder air Friday into part of Sunday.    The exact magnitude of the “deepness” of the air has not been modeled well regarding the southwestern extent.    In other words, there will be some “ bust” potential with some of the temperature forecasts in the next few days. 

 The pattern should change early next week.   The low will move eastward and we’ll see a noticeable warming trend for a few days next week.    The pattern will eventually bring a stronger looking system near us again in about a week, but the question remains the low level trajectory out of the gulf.   Significant low level moisture (50TDs and higher) remain locked-up into the southern Gulf of Mexico.   Until this change, we’ll continue to remain dry with little in the way of noticeable water values across the area.    Most data support a return to a southwesterly flow around Feb18th and 20Th.  

As stated yesterday on this discussion, the roller-coaster of temperatures-weather-and patterns will be under way soon.   

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone