TULSA, Oklahoma - A wind advisory and a Red Flag Warning will be underway today due to the strengthening pressure gradient resulting in strong winds and the increasing fire dangers.   South to southwest winds from 30 to near 50 mph will be possible.   The expected humidity during the afternoon near 30% to 40% combined with the dry vegetation and powerful winds will yield a rapid and possibly dangerous fire spread later today through the early evening hours.   Residents in rural areas should refrain from burning today.   A weak front will enter the area Saturday but not clear the region until Sunday morning to midday.   Slightly cooler air will arrive Sunday and a noticeable cool down is expected early next week with lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s.  

Temperatures are starting in the upper 40s this morning with some locations near 50 in the metro. South winds begin developing overnight and will continue to spread across northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas through the morning hours. Southeastern OK will see stronger winds developing later this morning through the afternoon.  

A powerful surface low pressure area to our northwest contrasted to a surface ridge well east of the area will create south to southwest winds today from 25 to 35mph with some gusts near 50 mph.  GFS model output suggest some gusts this afternoon near 55 mph will be possible across far northern OK and southern Kansas late today into the evening hours.  

The model continues to bring some moisture in the form of upper 40s to near 50 degree dew points into central and part of eastern OK. This would act to keep us in the mid-70s for highs.   But if the dews lower ( mix out), which typically occurs in this type of a pattern, temperatures would be higher, into the upper 70s and lower 80s.   We’ll keep a high near 80 for the metro and some 70s elsewhere.  A dry-line feature should move across part of western OK where some 80s will be likely today.

A weak front will near the area sometime Friday will stall across the I-44 region. A few small spotty showers are possible Friday and Saturday on occasion across far eastern or southeastern OK but the odds remain extremely low, less than 10%. As the boundary moves southward by Sunday morning, a few showers may form near the metro. The deeper moisture will remain southward where the higher chances for a few showers and storms will exist Sunday afternoon into pre-dawn Monday. Northeast winds will develop Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 60s.   

Monday cooler air will likely remain across the northeastern part of the state with morning lows in the 30s and highs in the mid-50s.   Another system may brush part of the area Tuesday with a few showers or sprinkles.

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a safe afternoon.

Alan Crone