Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Warm Weekend, Slight Chance Of Showers

Another record setting day today as Tulsa set a morning low record and an afternoon high record. The numbers were 78/59 and the previous records were set, not that long ago, in 2011. Normal values are 54/32.

As you can see on the max/min temperature map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, it was a very warm day statewide, both with respect to the morning lows and the daytime highs. And that was despite a northerly wind that we had for much of the afternoon. The weak boundary that brought the northerly winds also brought extremely dry air, as you can see on the relative humidity values during the afternoon hours.

That boundary will become diffuse tonight, and with light southerly winds returning, we will once again start off the day with morning lows near what our normal daytime highs should be for this time of year. There will also be more cloud cover through the day Saturday, along with the southerly winds.

The very warm start will enable daytime highs to, once again, be well into the 70s, but the cloud cover will keep us from threatening the 83 that is the record high for Saturday. With the clouds, there may even be a few light showers or some sprinkles around, particularly late Saturday and Saturday night - but the emphasis is on light.

A stronger cool front will move through the state Saturday night followed by a brisk N to NE wind for Sunday. Even so, the cooler air will not really start filtering down our way till Sunday night and Monday, as you can see on our forecast page. A more seasonal temperature pattern is expected through the middle of next week as the cooler air settles in, but, as has been the case for most of the year, we will be on the fringe of the coldest air which will be further east of us.

Also, the NW flow pattern aloft will have a disturbance embedded in it with the potential for at least some scattered showers/thunder on Tuesday. The latest run of the GFS suggests a much better chance than we are currently anticipating, but that solution is a definite outlier with regard to run to run and model to model comparisons. For the most part, we look to be on the fringe of the better rain chances and heavier amounts, as you can see on the 7-day QPF amounts which target locations much further E and S. But, that is subject to change.

After that system moves through, look for seasonal temperatures through the latter part of next week followed by warmer conditions once again for the weekend.

Looking beyond that, the 8-14-day outlook continues to suggest temperatures averaging warmer than normal and still a relatively quiet weather pattern. But notice the colder conditions returning to the East Coast. That suggests we will once again receive some glancing blows of colder air as it drops southward out of Canada in the weeks to come. That is currently suggested by some of the longer range climate drivers such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) which is trending strongly negative over that time frame.

Time will tell, but the combination of the AO going negative coupled with a still strong El Nino could suggest we may yet have some more winter in our future. Remember, March has had some significant snows in the past.

Dick Faurot