Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Rain Ending Tonight, Sunny Rest Of The Week

The rains of today have been the first widespread, decent rainfall amounts for the state since the end of December. The rain is still falling as I write, but up to this point in time the more southern counties have received some decent totals with amounts approaching 2” as you can see on the 24-hour rainfall map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet.

Ordinarily, the time of year and a system of this magnitude would also produce some heavy snowfall, but, despite very cold air aloft moving over us, and lowering the freezing level to just above the surface, the absence of sufficiently cold air near the ground has resulted in the snow mostly melting just above ground level and therefore a cold rain.

There have been some reports of snow mixing in at times, and there remains a possibility as we go through the early night time hours, of even more - particularly for the more eastern counties and the higher elevations. But, little or no accumulation is anticipated due to the unseasonably warm ground temperatures as seen on the soil temperature map at the 2” level.

Speaking of unseasonably warm, so far this winter has been just that. Keeping in mind that the winter from a climatological perspective is considered to be the calendar months of Dec-Feb, here is where we stand so far…

December was one of the warmest on record, with an average temperature 7.2 degrees above normal. January was very near normal, with an average temperature 0.4 above normal. So far, February is running 7.0 degrees above normal. Combine all of that and the winter, as a whole, is the third warmest on record up to this point in time. By the way, we are not likely to eclipse the warmest winters on record, either, despite what will be a warm end to the month, as you can see on our forecast page.

After the precipitation moves out tonight, look for skies to be clearing toward morning and lots of sunshine for the rest of the week. Brisk northerly winds for the next few days will keep temperatures more seasonal with morning lows near to below freezing and daytime highs generally in the 50s. By the time the weekend rolls around, our winds will return to a more southerly direction and temperatures will once again soar.

Not likely to be as warm as last weekend, but daytime highs near 70 appear likely before the next cold front arrives by Monday. That system does not appear to be particularly strong; with only minimal cooling and daytime highs, it will still be in the 60s for early next week. Also, that system looks to be mostly dry with only a slight chance of showers.

After that, it appears temperatures for the rest of next week, including the Bassmaster Classic weekend, will average above normal, as you can see on the 8-14-day outlook. Notice, though, that cooler air will be penetrating into the Great Lakes area and near normal conditions will not be too far east of us. That could suggest we may receive another glancing blow of cool air sometime later next week, even though temperatures will average warmer than normal.

Also, we may see a more active weather pattern during that time frame as suggested by the precipitation potential.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot