Alan Crone's Weather Blog: High Fire Danger Wednesday

Temperatures are in the lower to mid-30s this morning along with light south winds and mostly clear sky.   Strong winds from the south to southwest will increase speeds in the 20 to 30 mph range later this afternoon.   Dry vegetation combined with expected humidity in the 25 to 30% range will create critically high fire danger conditions across part of eastern and central OK.   A Red Flag Warning (fire weather warning) may be issued later today for portions of the state.   Daytime highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s will be likely across central and eastern OK.  

Red Flag Fire Warning Information

The upper air flow will quickly bring a clipper system across the central plains later tonight.   A few showers or small thunderstorms will be possible across northeastern OK this evening into pre-dawn Thursday.  This morning’s data is slightly more robust with this potential despite the meager moisture.   We’ll keep this pop around 20%.

Temperatures Thursday will start in the 40s and end in the upper 50s and lower 60s along with north winds at 10 to 20 mph.  Friday morning readings in the 30s will quickly erode with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s.   South winds at 10 to 18 mph are anticipated Friday with mostly sunny conditions.  Wind speeds will be stronger upon the open waters of Grand Lake.

This weekend presents some interesting developments in the pattern.   The past few days the EURO has consistently dropped a weak boundary across northern OK by Saturday morning to midday.  The GFS seems to be latching on to a weaker wind shift Saturday morning for a few hours and little in the way of cooler air.   We’ll plan for a wind shift early Saturday from the east or northeast but southerly winds returning Saturday night into Sunday morning.  As the winds return Sunday morning, low level moisture will begin streaming back across the eastern third of the state and a few showers or rumbles of thunder will be possible.  Lows in the 50s will be followed by highs in the mid to upper 60s.   The southerly flow returns due to an approaching upper level trough to our west.   This trough will cause several migrating areas of low pressure to develop and move across the southern and central plains early next week before the main trough moves across the area Tuesday into Wednesday.   This pattern will typically bring thunderstorm chances across the state.   If the low level moisture can make a quality come-back, severe weather will be possible.   At this point in the forecast cycle, confidence remains low, and our chances for showers and storms will remain around 30% Sunday into early next week.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone