TULSA, Oklahoma - Another round of showers and thunderstorms will arrive today.   Some could be strong to severe, even this morning, across part of southeastern and east-central OK.  

The temperatures will remain mild for the next several days with afternoon highs in the upper 60s today and the mid-60s tomorrow.   These numbers for the morning lows will drop slightly by the end of the week with morning lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s.  The majority of the week will focus on rain and thunderstorm chances.

The upper air flow will remain highly active for the next few days.   A lead wave has ejected from the intermountain region into the central plains this morning and will spread thunderstorms across the area this morning through midday.   But the main trough across the far western U.S. will develop a closed type low at the base and will influence our weather for several days.   This low will take the “scenic southern route” over the next 36 to 48 hours by moving across Mexico and into southern Texas.   As a response, the atmosphere will create a surface low across south TX.   This low will eventually move east and then turn northeast near the state by Thursday night into Friday.   The result will be a very active weather pattern for the rest of the week with ample rain and storm chances. 

The first round of precipitation moved across the area yesterday and is exiting the state this morning across far eastern OK.   Storms are developing across southwest Texas and will rapidly expand northeast during the morning hours.  This activity should continue into part of Oklahoma this morning through midday.   This will bring pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall across part of eastern OK and the threat for some severe weather will be possible.  

As the afore mentioned Texas surface low deepens tomorrow,  a cold front will move across Oklahoma with northeast winds moving across northern OK Wednesday morning or afternoon.   This will greatly limit the severe weather threat across most of eastern OK but extreme southeastern OK and northeast TX may still be in the running for a few severe storms Wednesday.   The better locations Wednesday will remain across northeast TX.

Wednesday morning to afternoon the axis of heavier rains will gradually shift southeast of the Tulsa metro but we’ll keep a high pop for northeastern OK through the morning to midday hour.

The main upper level low and the Texas surface low will eventually lift northeast Thursday night into Friday and we’ll see additional influence with regard to increasing precipitation chances Thursday evening into Friday.   The main system should quickly exit the area Saturday morning taking the rain chances to the east.

A new feature in the data is another fast moving upper air disturbance that may quickly move across the area Sunday morning with another chance for a few showers or storms.    I’ll give this another day before introducing any low pops for Sunday morning.  Temperatures Sunday afternoon will rebound into the lower 70s and even warmer air is likely early next week.  Another robust looking system will appear near the state for the middle of next week.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day.

Alan Crone