Frost Possible Tonight.

In case you missed it, the Wednesday tornadoes have been rated EF-2 by the good folks at the local NWS office and the complete story can be found here.   According to chaser reports, another very weak tornado briefly touched down NE of Nowata but the survey for that system has not yet been completed as I write.

So, will focus on what is going to happen in the days ahead and the main issue for the short term will be the potential for frost tonight followed by very mild conditions.  With very dry air in place along with light winds, cooler air, and clear skies, temperatures will drop to the low-mid 30s which could result in a light freeze for the protected valleys and frost elsewhere.  At any rate, tender plants will require protection tonight.

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After that, temperatures will be warming nicely with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to near 70 Saturday and well into the 70s on Sunday as stronger SW winds kick in.  As you can see on our forecast page, there will be some day to day variations in the surface winds but only minor impacts on temperatures in the days ahead.  For example, we will have gusty SW winds on Sunday; a weak boundary will shift the winds back to a northerly direction briefly on Monday, back to southerly winds Tuesday followed by another boundary and northerly winds for Wednesday.

These changes are a result of a NW wind flow aloft which typically brings frontal boundaries our way every couple of days.  Notice the graphic which shows the projected wind flow aloft at approximately the 18.000’ level valid Wednesday evening of next week.  I have indicated the pronounced NW flow at that level which will move some much cooler air southward from Canada but the primary push for the cooler air will be to the east of us.  At the same time, much warmer air will be entrenched to our west.  As a result, we will only receive glancing blows from cool fronts that will move through from time to time. 

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The 6-10 day outlook suggests this pattern will persist through that time frame keeping the coolest air well east of us and the warmest air well to our west and we will trend at or above normal with respect to temperatures.

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This NW wind flow aloft and the periodic frontal boundaries that will move through will also have very little moisture to work with.  As a result, our chances for any showers or storms will be minimal with only a very slight chance for the Tuesday night/Wednesday morning time frame and perhaps a few spotty showers for the following weekend.   Again, notice the 6-10 day precipitation outlook is not very optimistic for much in the way of moisture. 

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Notice also the 7 day QPF which keeps the state pretty much high and dry leading up to that time.  If we do receive any showers Tuesday night/Wednesday morning they should mostly be on the light side.  The current data runs suggest the front will arrive by early Wednesday morning which will be too quick for any deeper moisture to make it back into the state and therefore the chances of storms will also be minimal.

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Bottom line is a pretty quiet weather pattern for the first 10 days of April.  So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot