TULSA, Oklahoma - Increasing heat and humidity will lead to some heat advisories across part of eastern OK soon.   The mid-level ridge of high pressure may also flatten by Thursday allowing a weak upper level disturbance to slide across southern Kansas with a few storms moving southward.   A weak boundary will near northern OK Sunday into Monday with a few storms.   And the upper pattern may transition to a northwest flow pattern next week.  This would bring some storms back to the state and take the edge of the temperatures for a few days.

Temperatures this morning will start in the mid to upper 70s along with light winds and mostly clear sky.   The afternoon highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday but the heat index values will not reach criteria level today.  A few stray storms will remain possible today across far southeastern OK but the odds will remain very low.   Wednesday and Thursday local dew point temps are expected to increase modestly and this will allow some heat index values from 103 to 108 across eastern OK.   A few heat advisories will be issued but not all counties across eastern OK will be included in the advisory.  

The mid-level ridge is expected to weaken slightly and flatten Thursday as a weak but fast moving vort slides across southern Kansas.  This will produce some storms Thursday afternoon and evening across Kansas and a few of these will have a fighting chance to move southward into far northeastern OK and northwestern Arkansas before falling apart.   We’ve had this chance in the forecast for the past few days and will keep the mention.

This weekend the ridge will continue to weaken and continue to flatten as a strong upper level system will powerhouse its way across the northern high plains into southern Canada.   This will send a surface front southward reaching northern OK sometime Sunday into Monday with a chance of showers and storms.   The southward movement of the boundary will depend upon the exact position of the northern edge of the ridge.   We have also kept this pop in the forecast and will eventually bring these up slightly.   

Next week may offer some help.   The ridge will attempt to develop to our west, across the desert southwest, but will not expand eastward into the state.   A ridge of high pressure is likely to form over the Midwest and this will effectively place a northwest flow pattern across the central plains into Oklahoma.   This is a typical early June pattern that is apparently a few weeks behind schedule!   If this pattern change occurs, it will bring a chance for storms into the area along with a nice break from the heat.    Stay tuned!

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone