Rain Chances Return for Later in the Week.

For the month of August, this weather is mighty nice as drier air in place allowed for a nice cool-down overnight and although it warmed up to near 90 this afternoon, that drier air kept the heat index value from becoming an issue.  Notice the dew point temperature as of late this afternoon and most of us are enjoying dew points in the 50s and 60s on this side of the state.  Quite a contrast to the upper 70s we endured last week.  Only the far SE counties are still dealing with dew points in the 70s this afternoon.  At any rate, those lower dew points most of us are enjoying produced afternoon relative humidity levels well below 40% which is pleasant for August. 

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Notice the max/min temperature map for today and again the mild temperatures this morning and the warm, but dry afternoon is pretty nice for August.  By the way, the normal max/min for Tulsa is 94/72 at this time of year.

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That will be changing Wednesday as a brisk southerly wind will bring those higher dew points now in far SE OK back north so most of us will have dew point temperatures near 70 by afternoon.  For tonight though, generally fair skies and a light southerly breeze should result in temperatures a bit warmer with most locations in the mid-upper 60s and lower 70s for the folks down south.  That will be followed by more cloud cover by afternoon as the dew points rise and perhaps even a shower or two for the far SE.  Daytime highs will be near 90, but the humidity will be higher with minimum values near 50%.  That will result in a heat index possibly reaching the mid 90s, but at least no triple digits are foreseen anytime soon.

Thursday into the weekend will see mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers/storms as a series of systems will be impacting our weather, culminating in another cool front arriving late Saturday or Saturday night.  As you can see on our forecast page, the best chance for rain now looks to be on Saturday but a good chance is also anticipated for Thu/Fri, particularly for the more S/SE counties as the moisture spreads northward.  Lingering showers/storms may extend into the day Sunday depending on the exact timing of that cool front.  By the time it is all said and done, the potential for a good soaking is evident on the 7 day QPF which is trending wetter.  I know what you are thinking, that was also what was expected for last weekend and the potential for some locally heavy rainfall.  However, this time around there is no evidence for a wild card system that would intercept all the moisture such as what happened last week and caused the record rains/flooding in S Louisiana.

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The return of the clouds and rain chances for Thu-Sat will also knock our daytime temperatures back into the 80s and the weekend cool front will be followed by another cool-down at night as well as during the day going into next week. 

Looking further ahead at the 8-14 day outlook continues to suggest temperatures averaging below normal and precipitation chances above normal.  That would strongly suggest no additional triple digit temperatures nor triple digit heat index values for the rest of August.  As mentioned yesterday, we can certainly see triple digits into September, but so far the longer range guidance does not support the redevelopment of the massive heat dome aloft that usually precedes those type of events.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot