Chance of Showers/Storms, Still Warm.

Once again, hard to believe this is October.  The max/min here in Tulsa today has been 81/63 as compared to the normal of 70/48.  And, these much above normal temperatures will continue through the rest of the October and well into November the way things are looking.  More about that in a moment.  Here is the projection for the rest of the month and how that would compare to the all-time record warmest Octobers, again for Tulsa.  As mentioned in yesterday’s blog, we are projecting Oct 2016 to be the 5th warmest on record and here you can see the comparison to the ones ranked ahead of us.

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Also as mentioned yesterday, we are getting dry but at least there is some hope for rainfall over the course of the day Wednesday.  A few showers or rumbles of thunder will be possible over the more northern counties or more likely into KS first thing in the morning, but as the day wears on there will be better chances spreading on across the rest of NE OK ending that evening or early night.  This is not a favorable setup for severe weather although cannot rule out a few storms that may pose a wind/hail threat during the afternoon or evening hours.  And, not everyone will receive a good rain as you can see on the QPF map for Wednesday.  Most of us will only have a brief shower but a few lucky folks could pick up an inch or so of rain, but those heavier amounts look to be very spotty.

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The system responsible for the chance of rain is a weak frontal boundary that will try to push through the state Wednesday night, but without much success.  We will have a brief window of NE winds on Thursday before the boundary washes out and our winds return to a more southerly direction.  That all adds up to continued much warmer than normal conditions as mentioned above.

For tonight, mostly cloudy skies and a SE wind should keep us in the 60s to start the day.  That will not be a record as the warmest morning low for that date is 71 but that is still mighty warm for this late in the month. Southerly winds for much of the day will keep us in the 70s and the cloudy skies and chances of rain should keep us below the 80 degree mark.

Thursday morning will see clearing skies and lots of sunshine in the days to follow.  That will allow for a somewhat cooler start to the day on Thursday, but the sunny skies and a return to southerly winds should bring us back to near 80.  After that, it is basically a temperature forecast with only some day to day variation in cloud cover and the strength of the surface winds.  Right now Friday and Saturday look to be the warmest and we could be close to record territory, particularly on Friday afternoon.

As you can see on our forecast page, Halloween itself looks to be extremely warm.  Don’t currently see any records being set but it will certainly be extremely warm and still dry.

Beyond that, the 8-14 day outlook continues to have a strong signal for above normal temperatures well into November.  This would suggest daytime highs continuing well into the 70s as our normal highs by then are in the mid 60s.  At least the 8-14 day outlook does have some hope for a more active pattern with some chance of showers and storms.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot