Grab some rain gear as spotty showers will be possible today as a weakening upper level low ejects into the central U.S. over the next 24 hours.   A cold front will move across the area Tuesday morning bringing an end to the precipitation chances with generally pleasant weather following for the remainder of the week.  

Highs today will stay in the mostly in the 60s north with cloudy conditions.  There may be some pockets of slightly higher temps in a few locations.

The upper air flow finds a weakening trough ejecting into the central U.S. and will join with a stronger trough moving rapidly across the northern stream to form along wave trough Tuesday. This first piece of energy is the former southwestern U.S. closed low that has been west of the state for the past few days.  

As the upper air flow takes the newly merged low wave trough east of the state by Wednesday, another developing and closed low will form at the base of this trough almost in the same location that our 1st closed low was located in the southwestern U.S.   This pattern may repeat again with another ejection late this week or possibly into the weekend.   More on this later.  

But our main focus will be in the short term with rain probabilities across the area.

Southerly surface flow has brought moisture back into the area this weekend and this moisture content will result in scattered rain with some one or two lightning strikes with thunder today and tonight.  No severe weather should occur due to the lack of upper level support and surface instability.   I’ll mention some thunder but the majority of the precipitation should be mostly thunder-free.

This activity will be hard to time due to the migratory nature of the precipitation today so grab the rain gear and keep it handy through Tuesday morning.   It will not rain constantly during this period but it will rain at some time for most locations.

A few showers may continue for a few hours tomorrow, but the good news for Election Day is a surface front that will move across the area sometime early tomorrow morning to midday. This should effectively end the rain chances as a drier air mass moves across the state. A ridge of high pressure at the surface will dominate Wednesday into most of Thursday before the above mentioned upper air flow may bring yet another disturbance near the area late into the weekend.  

Per a discussion last week, the pattern should continue to change with a trend toward cooler and possibly colder air by the middle of November.   Stay tuned!

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone