If you’re catching this blog post before sunrise on Monday, you may be in for some storms if you’re in Green Country. A powerful storm system is poised to bring another round of rain to Green Country along with the threat for a few strong to sever thunderstorms. After this system clears out midday Monday, the colder air won’t be too far behind.

                The immediate concern lies in the storm threat into early Monday. A powerful jet streak (high winds within the jet stream aloft) are kicking over the Southern Plains and will create a swath of storms across the southeastern and east-central Oklahoma.  This area of storms may reach as far north as the Tulsa area just prior to dawn. Instability is the main missing component for more widespread severe storms. Nonetheless, the powerful wind dynamics with this storm will overcome the meager instability to generate a few storms that could rotate.  That doesn’t necessarily mean tornadoes, but it means the storms may be sustained longer, allowing for large hail and locally damaging wind gusts, especially south of I-40 through 7 am. Below is a computer model depiction of the Radar at 6am Monday showing widespread storms southeast of I-44, moving from southwest to northeast.

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                If you’re reading this later on Monday, the storms are a thing of the past and a mild, windy day is upon us. This Pacific-origin “cold” front will slide east of the area with no marked cool-down to follow. It will dry us out, however. That drying trend combined with high winds during the day could bring enhanced fire danger, especially in areas that didn’t see much rain from this storm system.

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                Another cold front will pivot into Oklahoma around a large upper-level low parked over the north-central U.S. this week by Tuesday. Behind THIS front is where we’ll find colder air.  By Wednesday, our highs will struggle to climb much above 50°. After a very modest rebound in temperatures on Thursday, another shot of colder air arrives Friday. This downward trend in temperatures finally brings us to pace with our average readings as we head into “Meteorological Winter.” We denote the months of December, January and February as that season for ease of record-keeping in the Weather World.  Below, you’ll see the precipitation outlook into the first week in December.

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                As we move deeper into the month, the active storm pattern continues. Although moisture will be lacking in these cold fronts beyond Monday, a deep, upper-level low will dig into the Southwestern U.S. by the week’s end, allowing for moisture to surge up and over Friday’s cold front stalling to our south.  Depending on the orientation of the upper-level energy and the quality of moisture return, we may end up with very cold rain showers by the weekend. It’s too early and too weak of a signal to start talking wintry weather in that timeframe, but the surface-level temperatures and thermal profile of the atmosphere will have to be watched as that time approaches. After all, we snuck into the time of year where wintry precipitation can readily occur here in Green Country.

                The bottom line is this: we are settling into a colder pattern starting this week. You’ll likely want to pull out the coat and keep it out for the season at this point. Each storm system that comes along will also be watched closely for any winter weather potential. For now, Old Man Winter appears to be holding off on a visit, but he may come sooner than our warm fall may lead us to believe.

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